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Feliciano Lopez and Robin Haase will square off early Sunday afternoon in the grand final at the ATP 250 event in Gstaad, Switzerland.
Lopez was not expected to get this far, despite being the first seed here in Gstaad. Lopez is not the greatest player on clay, which is by far his worst surface and he wasn`t entering the tournament in his best form. However, he can play better than decent on the red dirt when he finds his rhythm and he did exactly that this week, while also benefiting from a very easy schedule: Mertl, Ymer and Dustin Brown. Lopez looked set to lose against Brown in the semis but managed to come back from a 0-1 set deficit and win it in three.
Haase had a scare in the first round against De Bakker, where he needed a deciding set and he didn`t seem to be a threat this week, also considering that he had a poor year. But his next three matches were straight sets wins over Zeballos, Monteiro and Mathieu. All of them were close (Haase played 5 tiebreaks in 4 matches this week), but Robin was always in control and his victory over Mathieu in the semis was pretty solid, Haase played very good tennis against a red hot player.
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Haase leads the Head 2 Head 3-2, but on clay he won all three meetings. Haase also won the last two direct matches. Four of the five meetings went to a deciding set, so these guys always play very close games.
Lopez was not particularly impressive this week and watching him you always got the feeling that he will lose against a good, in form player. Brown seemed to be that player, but the inconsistency of the German eventually gave in, as he could not keep his level for the entire match. Of course, Lopez did well to claw his way back into the match.
Is Haase the good, in form player to finally end Feliciano’s run? He might well be. Haase is an accomplished player on clay, winning two titles on the red dirt and lost 1 set in 4 matches this week, all the way back in the first round. He was very solid in the semifinals against an in form Paul-Henri Mathieu.
I tend to give Haase the first chance in this one and that would make a bet on him to win a no brainer. However, I`m not completely sold that he`s the guy to take care of Lopez, as he did show some weaknesses himself this week. He`s not quite playing the tennis of his life, so I can`t give him more than 51% chances to get the win. Still excellent value on a Haase victory, but not if you want to take a safer approach.
As such, I will take an insurance policy and tip Haase to cover a 3 game handicap. Both guys are serving very well and the clay is fast in Gstaad, so we could well see 1 or two tiebreaks and a close match. Haase should at least be able to keep this (very) close. Over 22 or 22.5 games also seems like a very good choice, but I am sticking with the game handicap. Prediction: Feliciano Lopez – Robin Haase 6-4 6-7 6-7.
Pick: Haase +3 game handicap
Odds: 1.75 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.25
Event date: 24 July
