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France – Argentina

France Argentina betting preview

France and Argentina will square off in a blockbuster Round of last 16 match in the World Cup, both teams looking to avoid a disappointing early exit.

The French won their group pretty handily with 7 points, but in fact their performance was far from impressive and winning the group was more about a combination of average opponents and good luck. France defeated Australia 2-1 in the first match, a game they had absolutely no business winning, and were again a bit fortunate in their next outing against Peru – playing unimpressive football to beat a spirited Peru side 1-0. France’s last game against Denmark was the ugliest of the World Cup, with neither team playing anything and both settling for a convenient 0-0 draw.

Argentina’s struggles in this World Cup have been well documented, Messi’s side needing some help from Nigeria (who beat Iceland) and an 85th minute goal in the last group game against the same Nigeria in order to advance. With the oldest team in the World Cup, the Argentinians couldn`t really get anything going and seemed to be totally dependent on Messi – who was OK, but couldn`t make the difference by himself on a consistent basis.

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Team news & lineups:

Mendy is unavailable for France, while Umtiti is a doubt, but he`s expected to play. Argentina has Enzo Perez doubtful.

France: Lloris – Pavard, Varane, Umtiti, Hernandez – Matuidi, Kante, Pogba – Mbappe, Giroud, Griezmann

Argentina: Armani – Mercado, Otamendi, Rojo, Tagliafico – Perez, Mascherano, Banega – Di Maria, Higuain, Messi

Argentina has been under the spotlight for almost missing out on qualification and they have been criticized for good reason, as their old squad doesn`t look good enough to make a real impact at this World Cup. However, France was equally disappointing and a (very) fair case could be made that they simply had better luck than Argentina.

After all, if Argentina would have been awarded a clear late penalty in a first round against Iceland (or Messi hadn`t missed one), and France didn`t get a controversial penalty (or a fluke deflection) in their opener against Australia, the roles would have likely be reversed with Argentina qualifying easily and France sweating until the last minutes.

France seems to have real problems in this World Cup which are more complex and dangerous than just playing bad. They looked completely disjointed and discombobulated on offense, with no cohesion and no communication. The easiest of passes were often misplaced with players not being on the same page. These are problems which don`t seem like they can be fixed during a competition.

Of course Argentina isn`t much better, but they do have Messi, and they are also the underdogs here. Also, they earned a massive morale boost after their dramatic qualifications, which could have an impact.

All in all this looks like it could be a poor game between two out of shape teams. Both will probably be cautious knowing their shortcomings, especially with this being an elimination game.

Expecting under 2.5 goals makes sense, but the odds are too low at around 1.50 on that bet, so the best value is on the draw as far as I`m concerned. I will back the draw but with security in case Argentina pulls it off, so my tip will be a Draw – Argentina win no bet. Prediction: France – Argentina 0-0 (0-1 extra time).

Pick: Draw – Argentina win no bet
Odds: 2.10 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.70
Event date: 30 June

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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5 Responses

  1. Jeez. 7 goals. These wc is coursed. I played draw and also the under.no f..ing way these is happening

    • Yea, it makes little sense. Again a match with almost 100% shot conversion … 7 goals out of 8 shots on target. This effective finishing (poor goalkeeping?) along with tons of penalties and own goals make the matches extremely unpredictable and often the results have been totally random, making a mockery of logical previews and analyses from bettors.
      I don`t see myself backing the under too many times until the end of the tournament, especially at odds like 1.5 – 1.7. Really no value since the under / over line is completely volatile and random in this competition.

  2. Neither of these two has played good organized def se. Especially Argentina. It is what it is.

    The Uruguay – Portugal game probably burned a lot of people on the under. That had 1-0, 1-1 all over it. But three wonderful goals hit the over.

    • *Defense

      Tomorrow Croatia around 1.88. Take it and don’t look back.

      Also Spain -1 @ 2.1

      I think both win 2-0

    • I really wanted to write something for today, but I didn`t trust Spain. I almost wrote Croatia but in the end I didn`t fully trust that one either. Very few teams I trust in this World Cup, probably only Belgium and to a lesser extent Croatia, Switzerland and Uruguay (these last three I trust not to lose games more than I do to win games).
      On the other hand I don`t find much falue on the underdogs either. I feel the bookies are setting up the odds very well, which is not surprising at all for such a popular competition, and makes it harder for bettors to win.

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