France – Ireland

France Ireland Six Nations tips

The second weekend of the Six Nations is upon us, with France and Ireland squaring off on Saturday in the most anticipated clash this second round has to offer. France is on the back of a hard fought home win against Italy, while Ireland was held to a draw at home by Wales.

After underwhelming performances in the last years, France finally changed things up ahead of this Six Nations tournament and expectations were high. Unfortunately for the French, their performance in the 23-21 home win against Italy was dreadful and they could have really lost that game. France played poorly against the worst team in the Six Nations and their victory probably should not have happened. They scored an incredibly difficult penalty in the 75h minute (54 meters, near the touchline) to take the lead and were left at the mercy of a Sergio Parisse injury time drop goal, which missed.

Maybe it was a little bit naive to expect France to click right away, but leaving aside their poor play, they did not show any kind of potential. A lot of handling errors but also little penetrating power, no real edge on the wings and a poor defensive display. It’s really beginning to look like the infusion of foreign players in the France national league has left the Nation without top class domestic talent.

Ireland’s 16-16 home draw against a world class Wales team was actually a pretty impressive result. The Shamrocks had to deal with missing a number of key players via injuries or retirement and they were low on morale after last years’ disappointing World Cup – where injuries ruined their campaign and they lost badly to Argentina in the quarters. Despite all these, Ireland came out guns blazing, racing to a 13-0 lead and also showed character to come back after falling down 13-16. Ireland proved that they are here to stay, remaining a legit contender for the Six Nations, as they aim for a historic third title in a row. With players coming back from injury, Ireland is in good shape coming into this game.

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Team news & lineups:

France has lost Picamoles to injury after the Italy game and they will make six changes to the lineup that struggled last weekend. Ireland will get a huge boost, as a number of key players return: Rob and Dave Kearney, Sean O’Brien and Tommy O’Donnell. However, Keith Earls is sidelined.

France: 15 Maxime Medard, 14 Teddy Thomas, 13 Maxime Mermoz, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Sébastien Bezy, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Alexandre Flanquart, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Nathan White, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

The last meeting was in the World Cup a few months ago, with Ireland claiming a comfortable 24-9 win, with France looking absolutely powerless and the fit-again Sean O’Brian having a huge impact. Last year in the Six Nations Ireland won 18-11 at home and two years ago they claimed a 22-20 victory in France. Last time “Les Bleus” defeated Ireland was in 2011.

I have to admit that last week I fell in the trap of thinking this France team can return to former glory. Maybe they can, but it will take time and most importantly, Ireland is not Italy. If France should have had enough to comfortably defeat the Italians, they surely don’t seem to have what it takes to beat Ireland. Even if this France team shows a totally different face this Saturday, Ireland is still the true favorite. And if France plays as poorly as they did against Italy (though I do expect them to step it up), this might turn into a blowout.

Ireland certainly played better rugby than France in the first round and they are the better team overall. They played very well against Wales and that was without a couple of absolute key players, which are now back and will make a massive difference – mainly Rob Kearney and Sean O’Brien.

I fully expect Ireland to claim victory here. They will dominate the kicking game with a healthy Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney and they will make less handling errors than this young French side which is, seemingly, in need of a lot of time until building some chemistry. France will likely struggle to break down an Irish defense that seemed very solid last week, while the visitors have that killer instinct on the wings to capitalize on France’s handling errors.

Freance really doesn’t have much going for them here and I can see them struggling to find answers all game long. My tip is Ireland to win. Odds are dropping on this pick, you might not find a price higher than 2.00 on match day. Prediction: France – Ireland 13 – 21.

Pick: Ireland
Odds: 2.10 @ Betsafe
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 11
Event date: 13 February

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. It was a tight game..france was a little lucky in the end

    • Yep … however at 10 units I really expected this to be a winner. Not looking for excuses, but the first half injuries and a couple of bad calls probably decided it. Poor Ireland performance, they should have put it to bed, but credit to France for dominating the last 25 minutes and pulling off the comeback.

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