France – Ireland

Host nation France will take on Republic of Ireland in the Euro 2016 Round of 16 and the French will feel confident about their chances to advance, despite not playing well so far.

France has not been able to get it going in the first three matches, despite winning their group. The French needed last minute goals against very poor sides like Romania and Albania in order to win those games and went on to play a mutually beneficial draw against Switzerland, a sleep inducing 0-0 that told a lot about what`s wrong with football. France was awful against Romania and only a Payet wonderstrike in the 90th minute got them the win. Against Albania, France had no shots on goal until the 90th minute, but they scored twice in injury time. The team looks to lack chemistry and doesn`t seem to have much ideas in offense.

Ireland snatched a 1-1 draw against Sweden in the first match, but they looked set to go home after losing 3-0 to Belgium. Nevertheless, a heroic 1-0 win against Italy got them trough from the third place. Credit to Ireland for snatching that win, they defended well and fought like hell, but honestly speaking that was not the best Italy team – both in terms of players sent on the pitch and in terms of motivation / effort.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams are healthy and can field their best lineups, though Walters continues to be doubtful for Ireland and he might well miss out again.

France: Lloris – Sagna, Rami, Koscielny, Evra – Pogba, Kante, Matuidi – Griezmann, Giroud, Payet

Ireland: Randolph – Coleman, Duffy, Keogh, Ward – Hendrick, Whelan, McCarthy, Brady – Murphy, Long

Ireland is one of those sides that does not have much quality, but relies on effort, character and a good defensive play to grind out results. They are the oldest team in the tournament, but are still able to produce upsets in form of 1-0 wins – as showed against Italy or against Germany in the qualifiers. France seems vulnerable and must take Ireland very seriously.

I can see France struggling to break the Irish defense. Les Bleus don`t have a good flow on offense and are mostly relying on individuals to solve their problems in attack, as opposed to playing like a team. On the other hand, France should feel pretty safe at the back, as they allowed a single goal so far (from a penalty kick) and Ireland has no creativity up front.

I expect a difficult game for France, but I can see them edging it due to sheer quality. Ireland will also be tired after the heroic effort against Italy, especially considering their old age.

Look for France to dominate possession and pass the ball around in Ireland’s half, waiting to find an opening or an individual action to decide it. At the same time, I expect them to be safe at the back and keep a clean sheet. I can see a Spain – type game from France and something like an ugly 1-0 win in the end. If Ireland is too tired, it might be easier for Les Bleus.

My tip is France to win to nil, I reckon this has some of the best value from all potential bets for this match. Prediction: France – Republic of Ireland 1-0.

Pick: France to win to nil
Odds: 1.88 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 26 June