France – Romania

Cristina Neagu Romania France prediction

France and Romania will match up in the last round of Group A of the Women`s Handball World Championship. Romania has already won the group, while France is also qualified, but can finish between the 2nd and 4th places depending on the results in this last round.

France was one of the big favorites coming into this tournament and is still rated as having the 3rd chance at the title by the bookmakers, even though they have been a bit less impressive than expected. France made light work of group outsiders Paraguay and Angola, but lost by 1 goal against Slovenia and drew against Spain – the loss against Slovenia being particularly disappointing.

Romania didn`t enter the World Championship with the highest hopes, despite being the reigning bronze medalists, finishing third in the competition two years ago. The Romanians had to undergo a change of generations and even if their starting lineup is still very strong (with the best player in the world, Cristina Neagu, leading the line), they lack depth and the sheer quality of some of the veterans who retired. Nevertheless, Romania did brilliantly to win all 4 games so far, emerging victorious from some tight battles.

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Credit to the Romanians for winning the group, but it has to be said they had perfect circumstances to do so. It was a mix of a favorable schedule and good luck, given that Romania barely edged three of those four wins – and other tight results also went their way in this group.

Obviously Romania has played good handball, but they did show a number of weaknesses, and their results could have easily gone another way on other days. The Romanians were not very convincing against Slovenia, when they won by 3 goals, they beat Spain 19-17 in a very tight clash and were almost shocked by Angola on Thursday, needing late heroics from Neagu to win by 3 despite being 1.10 odds favorites.

In contrast, France was on the short end of a couple of close games, losing by 1 goal against Slovenia and drawing with Spain.

Fact is that the two teams played a similar quality of handball so far, but France remains the slightly better team overall, and most importantly they are much more motivated than Romania for this clash. There`s a big difference between finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and France definitely doesn`t want to end up 4th (which would happen if they were to lose this).

Romania might give more time to some reserve players here. While I don`t expect them to rest their stars (it would be a huge bonus if they do), as everybody wants to play in the World Championships, they will probably take some minutes away from their main players – particularly Neagu. That will be a big problem for Romania given their lack of depth, and every minute Neagu will not be on the pitch will weight heavily against the Romanians, as she is absolutely indispensable to this team.

France would be a favorite to beat Romania even in normal circumstances, but with motivation on their side, and with the chance to get a shot at some of Romania’s less talented players for some extra minutes, France should really win this.

My tip is France to cover the -3 (asian) handicap. Odds are dropping fast on France, which I expect to be at least a 4.5 point favorite come game time. Prediction: France – Romania 26-20.

Pick: France -3
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.84
Event date: 8 December

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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