France – Scotland

The first match of the 2019 Six Nations third round will see France hosting Scotland in Paris, on Saturday, at Stade de France.

France has lost both matches so far, and quite honestly Jacques Brunel`s side was in complete shambles in the last three halves of rugby they played. France started great with an excellent first half against Wales at Stade De France, but blew a 16 point lead in the second half to lose that match 19-24. The French followed that up with an abysmal performance in England, losing that one 8-44. It seems this will be yet another disappointing year for French rugby, and the hosts absolutely need to win this if they don`t want to sink in a deep crisis.

Scotland has not been great either so far in the Six Nations this year. The Scots started off with a 33-20 home win over Italy, a win which was more dominant than the result suggests, but still not very impressive. In the previous round, two weeks ago, Scotland lost 13-22 at home to Ireland, being second best for most of the match and never seeming likely to challenge for the win. The big issue for Scotland coming into this match with France is the fact that they will miss quite a few of their key players.

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Team news & lineups:

France will make several changes to the lineup which lost in England, but they will be by coach`s choice, as there are no new injuries reported.

Scotland (who was already missing 4-5 first teamers) has been handed blow after blow in the past two weeks, as 4 of their best and most important players went down (Hogg, Russell, Jones and Wilson).

France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Yoann Huget, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Arthur Iturria, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Félix Lambey, 4 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 3 Demba Bamba, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Nick Grigg, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Pete Horne, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Simon Berghan, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Allan Dell

In a vacuum, Scotland is the better team than France right now, especially considering how bad the French looked in their past two matches. However, this will not be the first choice Scottish team, and the injuries might be too important to overcome. It`s not just that Scotland misses players – they are missing their best players, who play in some of the most important positions. That`s a huge issue and it would be very hard for any side to get past such a problem at this level.

The shuffled French lineup on the other hand looks pretty good, with some changes which seem to be positive. The new haflback pairing of Ntamack and Dupont is much younger than the previous one of Lopex and Parra, and should give the French more pace and dynamism. The two also have good chemistry, as they play together at club level, and with Scotland missing Russell in that area, this looks good for France.

Home court advantage should also be massive here. France, no matter how much they were struggling at a certain point in time, have always been very difficult to beat in Paris, while Scotland has been abysmal on the road in the Six Nations for a long time. The last away win for Scotland in the Six Nations against anybody other than Italy was way back in 2010! Against France, their road record is even worse!

Scotland has not won in France since 1999, with France winning the previous 10 meetings on home soil (!!), and historically France has always been a matchup nightmare for the Scots.

Weather should be perfect for rugby come game time – not too cold, not too hot, no rain and little wind.

Home court advantage and Scotland`s key injuries are huge factors here, and this should be enough for France to claim a win. My tip will be France to win and cover the -5,5 handicap. I reckon this points spread should be within France`s reach given the circumstances, and quite honestly I am more comfortable backing France at higher odds (with a decent potential profit) than take the risk on them at a measly 1.40 (the price for the straight win). Prediction: France – Scotland 28 – 18.

Pick: France -5,5
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.83
Event date: 23 February