France – South Africa

France and South Africa will square off in a highly anticipated rugby test match at Stade De France, Paris, on Saturday night.

France is on the back of a 20 point home loss against New Zealand, a game in which the French were completely outplayed in the first half, but in which they recovered and competed with the All Blacks in the second hald, even managing to reduce the deficit. They also played New Zealand midweek and lost by 5, but that was a game between the “B” sides of the two teams, so it`s not worth taking into account. The French are smelling improvement recently under Guy Noves and the third place finish in the Six Nations at the start of the year confirms that – but they did lose their last four international tests by massive margins.

Three of those French losses came back in June in South Africa, when the Springboks demolished them three times by 23, 22 and 23 points. South Africa believed at that point that they have turned a corner after a dreadful 2016, but their next performances were inconsistent. The Boks showed signs of brilliance by drawing in Australia or losing by 1 point at home to the All Blacks, but they also lost by 57 points away in New Zealand and most recently were destroyed 38-3 in Ireland last week.

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Team news & lineups:

France will field the same lineup that lost by 20 against New Zealand last week, but they still have a number of key players out injured. South Africa will make no less than 10 changes to the lineup that got destroyed in Ireland, and most of them look good – as they are not made to rest players, but to change the tactics, and the Boks have plenty of depth. Hendre Pollard finally returning at No.10 could be a huge boost for the Boks.

France: 15 Nans Ducuing, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Geoffrey Doumayrou, 12 Mathieu Bastareaud, 11 Teddy Thomas, 10 Anthony Belleau, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kevin Gourdon, 6 Judicael Cancoriet, 5 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Ross Cronjé, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Beast Mtawarira

France playing with the same starting lineup that got blown out against the All Blacks last week, and New Zealand making 10 changes, is a good thing for the Boks. They should have the fresher legs, which is always key in rugby.

The return of Pollard at No.10 is also good news for the Boks, he was such a crucial part of the team before suffering a horror injury a couple of years ago, and after getting a few runs as a substitute, he should now be ready to prove himself as a big improvement over Jantjies. He is also a better kicker than Jantjies, which could prove crucial in an evenly matched clash.

At the same time, France misses Camille Lopez at No.10, which will be a massive blow, as he has been an instrumental part in their rejuvenation at the beginning of the year. His kicking will also be sorely missed.

While South Africa has plenty of problems, as last week`s 35 point defeat in Ireland showed, they did improve a bit compared to last year, and had a number of excellent performances in 2017.

Three of those were against France in the summer, and South Africa has now won the last 5 H2H meetings by an average margin of 20.4 points. Granted, France was tired and shorthanded when they toured South Africa in June, but those blowouts will still be in their head.

Expect a Springboks side desperate to bounce back, and they did prove this year that they can recover after a humiliating defeat, almost beating New Zealand after the All Blacks previously handed them a 57-0 defeat. South Africa was horrible last week in Ireland, but they are yet to play two bad games in a row this year.

You can`t realistically trust this mercurial French team in this clash, and all their recent wins against Tier 1 opposition were in close games, as they are rarely able to keep up the same level for 80 minutes. As such, South Africa to cover the 4.5 point spread seems like a good tip to me here. Prediction: France – South Africa 25 – 25.

Pick: South Africa +4,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 18 November