Genk – Astra Giurgiu

Genk will try to finish off Astra Giurgiu in the second leg of this Europa League tie, after the Belgians narrowly missed out on a win last week in Romania.

Genk was the slightly better side in Giurgiu and was close to claim a 2-1 win until Astra (which also played well) found an injury time equalizer. Despite struggling domestically where they are only 7th in the league, Genk has been excellent in the Europa League this season, winning a difficult group which also featured Athletic Bilbao, Sassuolo and Rapid Vienna.

Astra also had a remarkable road in Europe, knocking out West Ham in the playoffs and finishing second in a group with Roma, Plzen and Austria Wien. Astra did have a ton of luck to progress from that group, but it was a remarkable performance considering that the team sold all of its best players and was struggling in the bottom half of the table in Romania. Right now Astra is in much better form and just won against league leaders Viitorul over the weekend.

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Genk should definitely score at least one goal at home against an inferior team which does not defend well, but Astra can`t be counted out. The visitors don`t have much quality in the team, but they are in good form, have a couple of difference makers up front and have been fantastic away from home in Europe this season – much better than at home.

I don`t necessarily expect this to be an all out attacking affair from the start, but the first goal should totally open things up. If Astra scores, Genk definitely needs to push the tempo. If Genk scores, Astra won`t have anything left to lose and they will need to throw caution to the wind, leaving themselves open – and Astra is a team which can be extremely vulnerable at the back.

A bet on goals seems like the right choice here, both these teams are offensive minded and the 2-2 draw in the first leg wasn`t a fluke. the question is which is better – over 2,5 or both to score?

I will choose over 2,5 here, as Genk can definitely win 3-0 if Astra has a bad day at the office. I also think a 1-1 draw is unlikely to hold out given the result in the first leg.

My tip is over 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Genk – Astra Giurgiu 3-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.98 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.86
Event date: 23 February