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Golovkin – Alvarez

Golovkin Canelo Alvarez 2 betting preview

The highly anticipated rematch between Gennady Golovkin and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will take place on Saturday night in Las Vegas, after the first fight ended in a controversial draw last year – with most pundits feeling that Golovkin was robbed in that one. The WBA, WBC and IBO middleweight titles will be on the line in this fight.

Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KO) entered last year`s fight with Canelo as the best pound 4 pound puncher in the world (maybe even the best p4p fighter), and indeed he proved his power and quality in that bout against the toughest opponent he has ever met. Most fans and experts agreed that Golovkin won that fight despite the judges declaring it a draw, but that`s not to say Canelo didn`t put up a great fight. He was right there and really pushed GGG. Since then Triple G had one more fight, in May this year, defeating Vanes Martirosyan with ease via a second round knockout.

Canelo (49-1-2, 34 KO) has not fought since last year`s bout with Golovkin, as he was suspended for a failed drug test, so this could be a disadvantage as he could be a bit rusty coming into this fight. Nevertheless, Alvarez will be confident knowing that he competed well in the first bout with GGG, and also that he has just one loss in 52 fights despite facing tougher opposition that Golovkin did (the only knock against GGG is that until last year`s fight with Canelo he faced only average opposition). That sole loss for Canelo was against Floyd Mayweather.

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The 36 y/o Golovkin stands at 1.79 m with a 178 cm reach, while the 27 y/o Canelo stands at 1.75m with a 179 cm reach. Golovkin is an aggressor and a power puncher, while Canelo is a more versatile boxer and a counter puncher. It is a perfect contrast of styles.

Canelo looked a bit smaller at the weigh-in compared to the first fight, and many are speculating that it`s because he was on something back then. After all, he did get suspended later for failing a drug test, although he insisted it was because of some beef infestation in Mexico.

But that is just speculation, the important fact is that Canelo did look a bit smaller. Will that have an impact? Unlikely. It can be a subjective matter, depending on what muscles your weight goes. Maybe Canelo loses a bit of power (which doesn`t do much against GGG anyway) and gains some extra speed. Maybe that was actually the plan.

Also, Golovkin is a bit smaller / lighter himself, and for him that could be a bigger problem, as he needs the power more than Canelo.

The first fight was a showcase of perfect technical boxing, a real joy for the boxing purists, and it was highly entertaining as well. It was a close fight with GGG being the aggressor and Canelo landing some huge counter punches of his own.

While most fans and experts agreed that Golovkin was robbed, I actually disagreed with that ↗. Even if I picked GGG in that match, I am of the opinion that Canelo landed more clear punches. A draw looked fair to me, or even a Canelo win. The draw itself was not a robbery, only the way in which it was given, in the sense that one particular scorecard was incredibly strange.

Now Canelo comes into this fight a bit smaller and without having a competitive bout in the last year (GGG had one), so that puts him at a disadvantage. On the other hand, GGG, who already showed small signs of slowing down in the last couple of years, is now a year older, and that will count as well.

The odds are almost identical to how they were in the first fight, and I reckon the value here is on Canelo. I picked Triple G last year, but for the rematch I will switch my pick.

Canelo saw Triple G, took his power, and quite honestly he was better than Golovkin for many stretches in the first fight. Even those who insist Triple G was robbed will agree that it was a close fight and Canelo put on a show himself. He was very impressive, absorbing Triple G’s power and in the later rounds he was the better fighter.

Having the experience from the first fight, Canelo can now expand on his game and use a variety of tactics, while Triple G will be pretty much the same – aggressive, looking to land haymakers. He can`t do much else than he did last year. Canelo is a better technical boxer and he is much more versatile, so he can take the experience from the first fight, build on it, and employ a winning strategy here.

We have seen plenty of times in the recent past situations very similar to this one: the heavy puncher fights the better boxer, it is a controversial decision, and in the rematch the better boxer wins because he figured out his opponent in the first fight. Most notably Ward vs Kovalev comes to mind, but there are plenty of other examples like Diaconu vs Pascal, Froch vs Groves, Mayweather vs Maidana and we can go back in time to Doroftei vs Balbi and Sugar Ray Leonard vs Roberto Duran if we really want to. There really are too many examples to count.

While the above examples are obviously different fights and different fighters, fact is that we should not ignore history, but take it into account and learn from it.

Golovkin might have missed his chance last year. Now Canelo knows how to fight against him, has figured out what he needs to do, and he should be able to use this to his advantage.

One thing about which many are talking is that if it`s a close fight, judges might lean towards Golovkin, since the general opinion is that he was robbed in the first bout. But on the same note it must not be forgotten that Canelo has the Golden Boy promotions industry behind him, so it`s unlikely he will get railroaded if he deserves the victory.

This will be an exceptional fight from all points of view, as it is the best boxing has to offer right now. It will probably be close, but I will give Canelo an edge. Looking at the odds, a bet on the Mexican makes sense and I expect the smart money to be on him before fight time.

Even if I picked GGG last year and even if I am a fan of his style, my tip here will be Canelo Alvarez to win. I reckon he has a good shot of getting a decision.

Pick: Canelo
Odds: 2.50 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 10.50
Event date: 15 September

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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