Georgia – Romania

Georgia will host Romania in the last round of the 2018 Rugby Europe Championship, the so called “Six Nations B”. Romania are the current trophy holders, but will need a bonus point win in front of 50.000 fans in Tbilisi if they are to defend their title.

Georgia has cruised through the competition this season as they usually do, the exception being that 7-8 loss in Romania last year which denied them a 7th consecutive title. This year the Georgians defeated Belgium (by 47), Germany (by 64), Spain (by 13) and Russia (by 20), despite not playing their best and not fielding their best lineup in either of those matches. They will field a stronger starting XV this Sunday for this derby clash against rivals Romania.

The Romanians have been great in the last couple of years, appearing to be on the up, and claiming some excellent results like wins against Georgia or Samoa – as well as competitive losses against Tonga or Japan. Romania entered this year’s tournament with high hopes and defeated Germany (by 79) in the opener, but a shock 12 point loss in Spain in the next round has suddenly ruined everything. That loss meant Romania will almost surely miss on direct qualification for the World Cup, and manager Lynn Howells announced he will step down after this clash with Georgia. Romania was shaky after the loss in Spain, struggling to beat Russia by 10 points, but bounced back with a solid 50 point win over Belgium last week.

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Team news & lineups:

Georgia will field a better lineup than in their last games, in which they tried to experiment more. However, they still miss a handful of important players. Romania will also have to do without 5-6 key men, some of them having to be released to their clubs since this match against Georgia does not count towards World Cup qualification (the system is complicated and not worth explaining). The Romanians set up the lineup in such a way that they will also have a very strong bench.

Georgia: 1 Nariashvili, 2 Mamukashvili, 3 Chilachava, 4 Nemsadze, 5 Cheishvili, 6 Tkhilaishvili, 7 Koleishvili, 8 Lomidze, 9 Lobzhanidze, 10 Khmaladze, 11 Matiashvili, 12 Kveseladze, 13 Kacharava, 14 Sichinava, 15 Kvirikashvili

Romania: 1 Badiu, 2 Capatana, 3 Tarus, 4 Van Heerden, 5 Poparlan, 6 Siposethu, 7 Moyake, 8 Burcea, 9 Surugiu, 10 Umaga, 11 Dumitru, 12 Vlaicu, 13 Kinikinilau, 14 Fonovai, 15 Fercu

The yearly matchup between Georgia and Romania is always the biggest game of the year for both teams, with the exception of the occasional tests against big Nations, or WC qualifying matches. The rivalry is massive as the two teams fight for dominance in the second tier of European rugby.

Georgia`s remarkable progress saw them overtake Romania in the last few years and they are clearly the better team right now, but the Romanians are keeping the distance reasonably close – and proved it last year when they beat Georgia 8-7 in Bucharest.

While Romania`s morale is not the best right now, and their last 2-3 performances were not great, the Georgians have not been very impressive either, playing a few closer than expected games against the likes of Russia or Spain.

While Georgia is the clear cut favorite and should win this game, and home court advantage will be massive, the 15.5 point line set by the bookmakers does seem a bit high. Romania hasn`t lost a game by more than 16 points since the 2015 World Cup, despite playing some really tough tests, including one in Japan less than one year ago (losing that one by 12).

With both teams appearing to be slightly shaky right now and with both missing a few key players, chances are it will be a relatively close game and Georgia will have a difficult task in trying to win by more than 10 points. Even with the absences, this is a good Romanian team and should be able to hold its own in Tbilisi, saying goodbye to manager Lynn Howells with a good performance.

Look for a physical game, with Georgia dominating the forward battle due to their world famous pack, but Romania is also very capable in that department, while having a slightly more developed wide game, and the visitors will hope to capitalize on that for at least a try.

My tip is Romania to cover the 15,5 point handicap. The bet is currently available only at 3-4 bookies, including Bet365 or Betfair, but other Sportsbooks should follow. 8 units seems like a proper stake on this one as per my analysis. Prediction: Georgia – Romania 25 – 16.

Pick: Romania +15,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 18 March