Simon – Troicki

The last match of the day at Roland Garros will feature home favorite Gilles Simon taking on Serbian player Viktor Troicki in the third round in Paris.

Simon had a decent season so far, but he did not quite impress on clay, as he was expected to. A 6-4 win – loss record on European clay prior to Roland Gaross is definitely less than Simon expected, even though it is not bad. Here in Paris, Simon had an easy time against Dutra Silva in the first round, but found himself in huge trouble in the second, trailing Pella 0-2 in sets and looking like he was going to go out. However, he found the strength to win the third set and eventually claimed a hard fought win – but one that is set to give him confidence.

Troicki lost 5 of his last 7 matches prior to Roland Garros and did not do much in the European clay court season, but he pulled off two wins to qualify for this third round. However, beating Dimitrov 3-2 in the first round was not a special achievement, as Dimitrov is in dreadful shape right now. Additionally, Troicki was in serious trouble against Lajovic in the second stage, losing the first set, but Lajovic suffered an injury and had to retire.

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Simon leads the Head 2 Head 6-0 and this is a huge advantage for him today against Troicki. Not only did Simon win all 6 H2H meetings, but he didn`t even lose a set to the Serbian player. The pair met once this year, with Simon winning 6-3 6-4 in Monte Carlo, on clay.

Neither player is showing particularly great tennis right now, but Simon is on the back of a morale boosting comeback against Pella, while Troicki faced an injured Lajovic. Simon also played slightly better than Troicki in this tournament.

Can Troicki win a set against Simon given the Head 2 Head record between the two? He might, though I`m not so sure. However, it’s a stretch to expect Troicki to suddenly start outplaying Simon after so many one sided meetings, particularly on clay.

Simon is the better player here and he has the style to take care of Troicki. As long as the Serbian is not in any kind of special form, I`m comfortable picking Simon here – he should come out in this match playing his best tennis after doing so well to come back from 0-2 in the previous round. All things considered, my tip is Gilles Simon to win and cover the -1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Gilles Simon – Viktor Troicki 6-3 6-4 7-6.

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Pick: Simon -1,5 sets
Odds: 1.72 @ Betsson
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 27 May