Warriors – Rockets

The reigning NBA champions Golden State Warriors will open up their new season at home against the Houston Rockets.

Golden State was able to keep the entire roster intact after dominating last year’s season, extending the contracts of Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Pachulia and McGee. What`s more, the Warriors made some very good signings to strengthen their bench, mainly Nick Young and Omri Casspi, great three point shooters which should fit very well with the team. Golden State are without a doubt the best team in the league this year as well, but they will try to make a better start than last season – when they were blown out at home by San Antonio in the season opener.

Houston made a huge moving during the Summer, signing Chris Paul in an attempt to compete with the Warriors this year. However, Houston gave up a lot to sign Paul, and they will also need to change the way they play. Much of their success last season, when they were the 3rd seed in the West, was because of D’Antoni’s offense with James Harden as a point guard. Now Harden will move to SG, and will have the ball in his hands less.

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Team news: Iguodala is questionable for the Warriors, while Casspi is a small doubt, but he expected to play. Houston is at full strength.

There`s not much to be said about the Warriors, they will probably win a second consecutive title this season and should win somewhere around 65 – 70 games out of 82 in the regular season. They are 9 point favorites in this clash, and you could argue the line should be even higher.

Thing is that Houston is very highly rated right now, but personally I am not quite sure they will be as good as expected. The addition of Chris Paul is definitely huge, but it will change the entire complexity of this Rockets team. They will have to change the way they play (not the style, but the rotations & schemes), which was successful last year, so that will always be a big risk.

Also, Houston has kinda lost what was maybe their main weapon last year, their bench & depth. Williams and Beverly, both huge pieces, are no longer here. Rotation pieces Harrell and Dekker are also gone. Taking all these into consideration, it`s fair to question if Houston will actually be better than last season. I wouldn`t count on it, and some small struggles early in the season are almost guaranteed.

Bottom line, I think the Rockets are a bit overrated here, and it`s not a good matchup for them to meet the Warriors so early. While Golden State has kept the entire nucleus of last year, the Rockets come into this match with a new look and a new ball handler in Chris Paul. It`s a real possibility for them to struggle with chemistry against a superior team, which is also a well oiled machine, and I think this is the most important point in this match’s analysis.

We saw how Golden State was destroyed in the season opener last year against a well organized team like the Spurs, when the Dubs were trying to integrate Kevin Durant. This could happen to Houston now, especially as the Warriors will be fired up to not allow a repeat of what happened on opening day last season.

My tip is Golden State to cover the 9 point spread. They were amazing ATS in the last part of last season, and hopefully the trend will continue.

To be honest I wanted to buy 1 or 2 points for extra security, but the difference in odds between the 9 point handicap and the 7.5 or 8 point handicap is too big and is not worth it in my opinion. I`d rather be more cautious with the stakes on the bet, although 7 units is still a serious investment. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Houston Rockets 120 – 104.

Pick: Warriors -9
Odds: 1.90 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.30
Event date: 18 October