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Warriors – Trailblazers



Warriors Blazers Game 2 handicapping

The Golden State Warriors will host the Portland Trailblazers again in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals on Thursday night.

No Kevin Durant, no problem for the top seeded Warriors. After KD went down in Game 5 of the semifinals against Houston, the Warriors reverted right back to their original style of play before Durant joined them, and they are unstoppable. They finished the job in Game 5 against Houston, won Game 6 on the road, and a couple of days ago blew out the Trailblazers in Game 1, playing beautiful and effective basketball and winning by 22 points.

The Blazers (3rd seed) will be very disappointed with their performance in Game 1. They had the excuse of playing a grueling 7 game series against the Nuggets in the semifinals, but quite honestly that`s not much of an excuse at this level. The Blazers were no match for the Warriors on Tuesday and never looked like they had a real chance to win the game. They need to do much better this time around if they hope to challenge for the win.

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Team news: Durant and Cousins are still out for the Warriors, while the Blazers are still without Nurkic.

One can argue that the Blazers have a better chance tonight than in Game 1, as the Warriors don`t have the advantage of extra rest anymore, and also Lillard & McCollum (who struggled in Game 1) should play better for the visitors. The Blazers also defended Steph Curry atrociously, and he went bananas – they are expected to make adjustments. All those arguments are more or less nitpicking, and don`t mean much to me based on what we know about these Warriors and what we saw in Game 1.

I will revert to the same stats I posted time and time again, always with great success. The Warriors are 31-4 (!!) when Curry plays and Durant does not. They are 29-1 in the last 30 games when Curry plays and Durant does not! In all these games, they covered the spread in at least 70% of instances, probably more. While I don`t have the official ATS stats, I can accurately estimate that from memory (at one point they definitely had a run of covering the spread in 12 out of 13 or 14 games without KD).

It has been proved time and time and time again that the Warriors are pure gold to bet on when Curry plays and KD does not, because the bookies do not give them the same respect, and set the odds as if they suffered some huge blow. But the Warriors revert to the brand of basketball which made them one of the best teams ever before KD joined them, and Curry and Klay can play their own game free of limitations. In most matchups they are better and more effective overall without KD, yet their odds go up. They lost 1 out of the last 30 matches when KD was out, let that sink in.

We saw absolutely nothing from the Blazers to suggest they could break this streak that the original Warriors have without KD. The Blazers are not as good as the Warriors, they have a bad matchup against the Warriors, and in Game 1 they looked hopeless. They got destroyed by 22 points!

This should be another beatdown. Hopefully things will go according to plan and we will take advantage once again of the odds on the Warriors when Durant isn`t playing. My tip is the Warriors to cover the -7 (asian) handicap, just like in Game 1. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Portland Trailblazers 117 – 101.

Pick: Warriors -7
Odds: 1.95 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.55
Event date: 17 May

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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