Grenoble – Castres

With the French Top 14 regular season nearing the end, Castres continues their push for the top positions against a virtually relegated Greboble side.

Grenoble is coming after a solid 23-23 home draw against 4th placed Touloun, but the result wasn`t much help in their quest to avoid relegation. Grenoble is second to last in the Top 14, no less than 11 points away from safety and they are pretty much relegated already. Nevertheless, they have proved to be difficult to beat at home in the last couple of months.

Currently on the 6th place (but with a game in hand) Castres is involved in a dogfight for the top positions and is looking really good value to catch the playoffs, as a win today could see them climb up as high as 3rd in the standings. The visitors won 3 games in a row before a competitive loss away at strong Pau in their last match, so they are definitely one of the most in form teams in the French Top 14 at the moment.

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Castres will have a very important edge in terms of fitness and rest. While Grenoble played a very difficult match with Toulon just 6 days ago, Castres had last week`s match postponed, so they haven`t played in two weeks.

Of course, both teams had some of their top guys play International rugby last weekend, but the rest of the Castres players had the weekend off, and the visitors also did not let go of their main players to other National Teams aside those from the Six Nations. The likes of Lazar (Romania), Tussac (Germany) and others still had the weekend off despite being Internationals.

The extra rest gains even more significance considering the fact that the visitors are one of the most powerful teams in France and they own the second best defense to the league. They like to dominate with their forwards and the days off are due to have massive impact on the energy and power of the forward line and scrum. This is the kind of advantage which has the potential to be a difference maker and Castres will surely try to capitalize by playing even more physical than usual.

One thing that works in Grenoble’s favor is their home record. Home court advantage is always extremely important in the Top 14 and Grenoble is 5-1-4 at home, having not lost in 4 games on their own turf – including the 23-23 draw last round with Touloun, a team similar to Castres in terms of standing and quality.

Grenoble must be respected at home, but even so they are one of the worst team in the league and will surely not be in this division next year. I doubt home court advantage will be enough for Grenoble considering that Castres is in such good form, plays excellent rugby and comes into this match rested, with full focus and motivation.

Look for Grenoble to maybe cause some problems in the first half if they are on a good day, but once Castres gets going they should take full control and put the match to bed in the second half, when their superior bench and their days of rest set to make the difference.

My tip on this clash is Castres to win. Odds on the bet have started dropping at every bookmaker. Prediction: Grenoble – Castres 18 – 26.

Pick: Castres
Odds: 1.65 @ Doxxbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 25 March