Betdistrict.com
Best match, betting-wise, from the second round of #USOpen has to be the match between Argentinian, Guido Pella, and Italian, Paolo Lorenzi. This is a battle of contrasts, a battle of generations and also a battle between two clay-court specialists on a hard court.
Guido Pella has a 24W-20L this season and 4W-5L on hard courts, while his career shows a 442W-277L on all surfaces and a 63W-59L on hard courts (since 2005).
Paolo has a 22W-22L record this season and a 3W-3L on hard courts, while his careers shows a 664W-514L on all surfaces and a 154W-124L on hard courts (since 2002). It can be seen rather easily that both players enjoy more a clay-court grindm instead the hard courts.
Pella started the season in Doha, on hard courts where he reached the SF, losing to Rublev in a final set tie-break, and after that he lost ot Thiem (3-0), Verdasco (2-1), Youzhny (2-0) and Carballes (2-0) on hard courts. His only win on hard courts since January comes here in US Open 1st round and that is against Casper Ruud.
Lorenzi started the season in Doha too, where he lost to Monfils in the first round (2-1), Monfils being the Doha champion that week, then he played Sydney where he reached the QF, losing to Medvedev 2-0 (player who won Sydney that week) and then lost to Dzumhur 3-2 in Australia. His first win since January comes for him too in US soil against a top opponent, Kyle Edmund, whom he defeated 4-6 6-4 7-5 6-1 (being priced 8.67).
Pella got twice in the 2nd round at US Open, in 2016 he defeated Fratangelo and in 2017 he defeated Darcis. Lorenzi on the other had managed to get to the 2nd round in 2014, to the 3rd round in 2016 and to the round of 16 in 2017. He defeated Nishioka in 2014, Berlocq and Simon in 2016, and Sousa, Muller and Fabbiano in 2017. It is clear that both can play on hard courts, but choose not to because they feel more confortable on the slow surfaces.
Let’s talk match-up now
Lorenzi won 77 matches against left-handers in his career and lost 75 of them, while in the passt year he managed to win 3 and lose 4 of them. His losses in the past year come to Krajicek, Verdasco, Zverev and Bagnis. His results against lefties on hard courts during his career are good, winning 20 matches and losing 17 of them. From those 20 wins, mention-worthy time-wise are Ramos in Sydney 2018 and Muller in US Open 2017.
Pella won 6 matches on hard courts in the past year (against top-100 opposition) and lost 10 of them. Similar players to Lorenzi can be called Carballes Baena (lost 6-4 6-2 in Winston Salem 2018, last week), Krajinovic (lost 6-4 6-1 in Paris 2017), Coric (won 6-4 7-6 in Chengdu 2017), Troicki (lost 2-1 in St. Petersburg 2017). These players are similar to Lorenzi because they can and will grind out points against opponents, and also because they possess really good backhands (which is important to have against lefty players).
The two players have faced each other 3 times in the past and the Italian leads 2-1. They have met once on hard court (in 2014 in Irving Challenger) and Paolo won it 6-1 3-6 6-4. The other two matches were on clay courts and Pella won in 2012, while Lorenzi won the most recent one in 2017 (Davis Cup match, won 6-3 6-3 6-3 as 2.16 underdog).
Seeing all these informations, I really don’t get why Pella is priced as he is, and also why Lorenzi isn’t favorite for this match. I guess it can be called a coin-flip at most, but to have Lorenzi @ 3+ is just insane. Lorenzi is in good form (despite starting 2018 in horrible way), he won 2 challenger events in the past month. Pella played okish on grass, got to a final in Umag where he lost to Cecchinato, and then played only 2 more matches in one month (lost to Carballes and win over Ruud).
Clear max-bet on Lorenzi to win @ 3.06 from Pinnacle.
Pick: Lorenzi
Odds: 3.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 20.6
Event date: 29 August
