Hammarby – AIK

Hammarby will host AIK in what is one of the biggest derby matches in Sweden and the city of Stockholm. The match will count for the 15th round of the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Hammarby is currently sitting on the 14th place in the standings and that is where they are likely to remain, fighting to avoid relegation. The hosts are coming after a 3-3 home draw against fellow relegation battlers Falkenbergs, a match that Hammarby should have won on paper. Nevertheless, they came back from 0-3 down, which is sure to give them a huge boost ahead of the derby with AIK. An interesting fact is that Hammarby has not won a single point against Top 7 sides this season, so that will be a reason for them to worry.

The visitors (5th place) are undefeated in 12 matches in all competitions and they are definitely in good form – but not as good as the stats might suggest. AIK has 3 consecutive draws in Allsvenskan (a total of 6 in 14 matches) and is coming after a 2-0 aggregate win against Europa FC in the Europa League qualies. AIK won 1-0 a few days ago in Gibraltar and did not look good at all in that tie. Last weekend AIK held Malmo to a 1-1 draw, in Stockholm.

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Hammarby has struggled big time in the last decade, fighting against relegation, going down to the lower leagues, trying to climb back into Allsvenskan. However, for the most part they managed to remain competitive in the derbies against AIK. Hammarby won the home fixture last year 1-0 and lost 0-2 away, after the two teams have not met in 6 years.

The hosts will feel that this is one of their best chances to take down AIK, as Hammarby has an almost decent team this year and their rivals are coming after a match in Gibraltar, with the travel and all it included.

While Hammarby does not seem to have the strength to get a win here, especially given their struggles against top teams, they should be able to get a draw. They lost just once at home in 7 matches this season, recording 4 draws. AIK is in good form but has not been dominant lately, they are always going back and forth between close wins and draws. A motivated Hammarby side should snatch a point here, but no more (even if they are considered slight favorites by the bookies, which I do not think they should be, even taking into account that AIK played Europa League football midweek).

My tip is the draw, bet on a close game here. Odds are brilliant on the bet at Pinnacle, actually most bookies are offering some crazy payouts for this match and we get great odds on the draw. Prediction: Hammarby IF – AIK Solna 1-1.

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.66 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 10.64
Event date: 24 July