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The struggling Rockets will take on the resurgent Mavs on Wednesday night in Houston.
The Rockets (9-10, 4-4 home), last year`s Western Conference finalists, were expected to be a bit worse this season after losing the defense of Ariza and Mbah a Moute in the off season. However, nobody quite expected them to struggle so much. After 19 games the Rockets have a record below .500, and things aren`t appearing to get much better. The hosts have now lost 3 games in a row, and are also dealing with an injury to their second best player, Chris Paul.
The Mavs (9-9, 1-7 away) had a rough start to the season after reshuffling the roster over the Summer, but they have gotten better recently, as many people expected. Dallas has now won 6 of its last 7 games (including some wins against top teams) and attacking the playoffs seems like a real possibility yet again. Last time out, the Mavs defeated the Celtics by 9 points on Saturday, at home.
Bet on Rockets vs Mavs and get your 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet now!Team news: The Rockets will continue to be without Nene and Knight, while Green is questionable. The situation of Chris Paul is however more important – after missing two games, the star point guard is listed as questionable for tonight. As for the Mavs, they will continue to be without Powell and Nowtizki, while Doncic and Smith Jr are questionable, but expected to play.
Betting on this match does hold a higher degree of unpredictability and some extra risk, due to all the questionable players. However, an assessment of their situation might actually allow us to get some early value.
Chris Paul is questionable for Houston but he does not look likely to play, given that coach D`Antoni revealed yesterday that Paul`s injury is hamstring related. That is worse than initially thought, especially since it`s a recurring one. It wouldn`t seem smart for the Rockets to risk Paul in these circumstances in an early regular season game, and they are really struggling without him.
As for the Mavs, coach Carlisle said he is “optimistic” about Smith Jr`s chances to play, and when coaches say that, the player is on the court in almost all cases. Doncic appears to be struggling with some kind of cold / flu, and players often play through that.
There`s also the fact that Dallas has played just once in the last week (!!), and has not played since Saturday. That is A LOT of time off in the NBA, so it should help with the recovery of the questionable players, as well as allowing the Mavs to come out fresh and with energy into this match.
Not lastly, the Mavs are much deeper than the Rockets, so they should be less affected by the potential injuries.
While it`s impossible to predict, an educated guess would be that Paul will not play for the Rockets, while the Mavs should have Smith and Doncic available. If that ends up being the case, odds on the Mavs will plummet, and we would have gotten great value on the visitors.
In any case, Dallas should be with a chance in this one no matter who ends up being on the court. The Mavs are in great form and have been underrated by most this season.
I have predicted at the start of the year that there will be money to be made on the Mavs due to the public not giving them proper respect, but unfortunately I chose the wrong games at the start and it appeared I was wrong. But now, Dallas is actually the BEST team Against the Spread in the entire NBA (12-6-0), so bettors who have sticked with them have made money.
On the other hand, the Rockets are the third worst ATS team in the NBA.
All in all, I reckon it`s worth taking the extra risk on this clash, chances seem to be in our favor and I trust that it will pay off in the end. My tip will be the Mavs to cover the 6,5 point handicap. Prediction: Houston Rockets – Dallas Mavericks 105 – 110.
Pick: Mavs +6,5
Odds: 1.93 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 29 November
