Rockets – Warriors

The Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors as a 1.5 point spread favorite, in what is set to be a blockbuster clash between two of the finest teams in the NBA

Houston (51-22, 28-9 home) is having a tremendous season, surpassing all expectations due to the brilliant coaching of Mike D’Antoni and the excellent play of James Harden. The Rockets will will surely finish the regular season as the 3rd seen in the Western Conference and they look like a legit threat in the playoffs. They are also playing some great basketball right now, winning 4 in a row and 7 of the last 8 – scoring 137 points last time out, against OKC.

Golden State (59-14, 28-10 away) is riding a 7 game winning streak and last time out Golden State defeated its nemesis, Memphis, by 12 points two days ago. Despite playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are looking excellent right now. Steph Curry is getting back close to the level he was at last year and the team found new defensive intensity – giving up an average of just 94.85 points per game during the 7 game winning streak.

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The Warriors have made a mockery of the media and some fans, who had a huge overreaction when Kevin Durant got injured a few weeks ago. The Warriors were in the middle of a grueling winning streak and struggled for a few games without KD, but once they refound their groove they have been unstoppable.

A fair case can be made that Golden State is still the best team in the league even without Durant – after all, they went 73-9 last season without him – and a win in Houston would be the final testament to this argument. It`s true that they gave up many pieces to sign KD – the likes of Barnes, Bogut, Barbosa, Rush, or Ezeli were all important role players, but on the other hand losing them was not that huge of a deal. Particularly with all being replaced by guys of similar caliber who slowly integrated into the system.

Even with all the above, the Warriors keep being massively underrated due to the absence of Kevin Durant and the best proof of that is the fact that they covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games – and would have covered it in 6 of 6 if not for some garbage time against Sacramento.

A very important argument for the visitors today is the fact that Houston simply does not match up well against the Warriors. Houston plays a similar style of basketball to Golden State and doesn`t have the ability to exploit Golden State’s weakness, which is lack of size in the paint. They are almost exclusively a three point shooting team, but Golden State is the best team in the league when it comes to defending the perimeter. Warriors holds opponents to only 32.8% shooting from three, the best in the league.

The Rockets did beat the Warriors once this season and it was actually in Golden State. However, that was one of the worst shooting nights of the season for the Warriors and they still almost won it in double overtime. The next meeting was a blowout win for Golden State in Houston to tie the regular season series at 1-1.

Look for a good game here, but with Houston struggling to score as many points as they usually do, mainly because of Golden State’s ability to defend the perimeter. If Curry and Thompson don`t have off nights for GS, the Warriors should take this one – and it`s unlikely for both of them to shoot poorly, given Houston’s pedestrian defense.

As far as I`m concerned there is no way Golden State should be the underdog against these Rockets, who are a good team, but not as good as the Warriors and also do not match up well against them.

The handicap line is set at just 1.5 points, so my tip will be a straight Golden State win. I will invest high stakes on this bet, as I feel the odds have real value. Prediction: Houston Rockets – Golden State Warriors 110 – 117.

Pick: Warriors
Odds: 2.10 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 11
Event date: 28 March