Rockets – Warriors

Rockets Warriors Game 5 prediction

The Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors at the Toyota Center on Thursday night in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. With the series tied at 2-2, this game 5 will be huge for both teams.

After the Warriors were in control for the first part of the series, they have now conceded home court advantage back to Houston, after losing Game 4 in Oakland. The Warriors looked very good overall in the first three games, which included a 13 point away win in Game 1 and a 41 point (!!) blowout in Game 3, but two nights ago they were not able to play their best basketball and found themselves on the losing end of a tight match at Oracle Arena, 92-95.

The top seeded Rockets deserve a lot of credit for what happened in Game 4. After being outplayed for most of the series and falling down to an early 0-12 deficit, it really seemed like they will return to Houston trailing 1-3. However, they stepped up their defense to a level which, quite honestly, nobody thought they were capable of. They kept grinding, they survived the Steph Curry 3rd quarter onslaught, and finished the job in a close finale.

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Team news: The Warriors have Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala questionable. Iguodala (who also missed Game 4) has about 50% chances to play, while Klay Thompson is expected to start. Coach Kerr himself said, quote, “I think Klay will be fine”.

Despite not playing great, the Warriors should have still won Game 5, as a Steph Curry explosion late in the third quarter allowed them to hold a double digit lead in the 4th. However, they were harassed by Houston`s defense and scored just 12 points in the final quarter, one of their worst offensive outputs in a very long time.

Houston deserves all the credit for their defense, but them repeating that display is questionable. The Rockets are definitely not known as a defensive team and putting that kind of effort on defense for two games in a row could be too much to ask.

Also, for all of Houston’s defense, fact is the Warriors flat out played bad. They had plenty of open shots they did not make. The loss kind of follows the scenario of the entire series: the Rockets dominate when they play great and the Warriors play poorly, while the Warriors dominate when both teams play well.

Golden State is the better team and as long as Klay Thompson will play, they should win this match. It`s hard to see such a juggernaut going down 2-3 and facing elimination, even if the Rockets are a great team as well.

There`s also the fact that the Warriors just don`t have consecutive bad games. They always bounce back, as we saw in Game 3 (won by 41) after they got soundly beaten in Game 2.

While I do like the Warriors to win today, the small possibility of Klay Thompson not playing (or him being hobbled) is a risk I am not completely comfortable taking. The potential absence of Iguodala will also take away some of their mojo.

The bet which makes the most sense in these circumstances is Steph Curry to score over 25.5 points (the exact bet I successfully took in Game 4). In such a huge game him and Kevin Durant will be asked to carry most of the offense, and both should get a lot of shot attempts, especially with the possibility of Klay Thompson not being at his best, a case in which he will be used more intensively on defense, where they need him more.

Expect Durant and Curry to have big nights in this Game 5, the difference being that Durant`s line stands much higher at 30.5 points. It is really surprising that Steph’s line is just 25.5, like it was in Game 4, despite the evidence that he got his shooting touch back – scoring 35 in Game 3 and 28 in Game 4. Not to mention the special circumstances with Klay Thompson potentially not shooting as much as he usually does, which means more attempts for Curry and KD.

I would be fine taking the Warriors to win with 5 units or so, but my tip (and a better bet I reckon) is Curry to score over 25.5 points. Some bookies have the line at 26.5, which I think is fine as well, as I expect him to have around 30 here and would have personally set the line at about 27.5 or 28.5. Prediction: Houston Rockets – Golden State Warriors 105 – 110.

Pick: Steph Curry over 25.5 points
Odds: 1.72 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 25 May

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

3 comments

  1. I was slightly worried for this bet last time at half time. Only had around 8 or 9 points I think and wasn’t getting many open shots thanks to some good defence but man, the 3rd quarter. When he takes those shots from way outside the three point line its insane. I don’t know how you defend something like that. You’ve got him way back going nowhere and he just does that. Probably should’ve ended up with more points in the last game as well because he had a few lay up chances towards the end of 3rd quarter if I remember correctly.

    • Forgot to mention the foul trouble as well in the 2nd. That had me worried as well.

    • Yea, completely agree with what you said. “Slightly” is well put, because he can always erupt for like 15 points in 3 minutes, so it`s not a huge deal if he doesn`t get going early.
       
      He`s unstoppable in those moments you mentioned, and it`s also so much fun! Foul trouble got me worried as well, hopefully tonight won`t be the case. I think that`s the biggest danger, especially as they go at him on defense. But that`s a variable you can`t quite control or predict.

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