Rockets – Thunder

Houston Rockets will attempt to take a 2-0 lead against Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference quarterfinals, after winning a blowout in Game 1.

Houston (reg. season: 55 – 27, 30-11 home) entered the playoffs in fine form and played an excellent, high energy match in Game 1 against the Thunder, winning by 31 points. Essentially a 3 point shooting team, Houston showed surprising resilience in defense and on the glass. It took some time to get going, as the match was close in the first half, but the second half was a blowout.

OKC (reg. season: 47-35, 19-22 away) was led by MVP favorite Russell Westbrook to a solid 6th seed in the West and they had high expectations going into the Houston series. With Westbrook being a shadow of himself in Game 1 and with nobody else stepping up, Thunder were never going to stand a chance in that one despite only trailing by 5 at half time.

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The first match was an aberration from certain points of view. OKC’s top two scoring options were dreadful: Westbrook shot 6-23, while Oladipo was 1-12. That kind of atrocious shooting can`t happen for a 2nd consecutive game. But the most glaring thing was Houston out rebounding the Thunder by 15! That is very unlikely to occur again, as Houston is not a good rebounding team, while OKC is one of the most physical sides in the game. The Thunder have no shooters around Westbrook, but they should be able to dominate a team like Houston with their superior height.

OKC surely looked long and hard at those rebounding stats and you would expect them to come out with much more energy on the glass. Russell Wesbtrook will also be desperate to bounce back, as he was eclipsed by his rival in the MVP race, James Harden, and Westbrook is the kind of guy that takes these things personally.

To be fair, Houston did not quite go off from the three point line in Game 1 and they are capable of that, but they still shot a decent 30.5%. A small improvement should not matter much as long as OKC comes out with the expected energy in the rebound game.

Even if they ended up losing by 30 in Game 1, OKC held on with Houston for half of the game despite playing an utterly horrible match. An improved performance for the Thunder should make this a close one, as Houston is not that much better than them. I would actually not be surprised if an unleashed Russell Westbrook guides OKC to victory this time around.

The first match of the series has too much of an impact on the odds as far as I`m concerned and there`s a really tasty spread on offer for the Thunder. 8 points seems a pretty high line, especially considering that 3 of the 4 regular season meetings were decided by 3 points or less.

My tip is Oklahoma City to cover the +8 point handicap, I reckon this has good chances to be a close game. Prediction: Houston Rockets – Oklahoma City Thunder 109 – 110.

Pick: OKC Thunder +8
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 20 April