Betdistrict.com
The last Slam of the year is here and it starts with the qualification matches. My eyes have slipped to one tip for 22nd of August for the totals market. The match in the cause is the clash between Ukranian Ilya Marchenko and Croat veteran Ivo Karlovic.
I guess everybody knows that Ivo is the greatest server of all time, hitting over 12k aces in his career and playing usually most of the sets pretty quickly, and very serve-oriented.
Ivo is also the tallest player on tour and sits at 2.11 m, while Marchenko is 1.85 m. Big Ivo is now 39 years old and the little stamina he had during his career is gone too, and he is very focused on holding serve, chipping all returns and rushing to the net. Ilya is an aggressive baseliner, but the injury issues he had recently made him have horrible results recently.
The main factor which influenced me in deciding this bet is that the two have met twice before, and in each match the first two sets were tiebreaks. The last match, in Doha, was won by Doctor Ivo 7-6 7-6 and the entire match featured only one break point, Ilya saved it. The 2015 clash from Newport was won by Karlovic 7-6 6-7 6-4 and the first two sets saw 0 break points (of course the grass in Newport is faster than the hard courts in New York, but still).
Ivo played 24 2/3 sets matches in 2018, won 9 of them, and he managed to get past the 23.5 totals mark a total of 18 times. Marchenko played 9 matches in 2018 and lost all of them, but the last 3 matches showed some improvement. He still got over the 23.5 games mark 6 times.
I think it is a huge value to back the over 23.5 games, as we can win the bet in 2 sets too.
Pick: over 23.5 games
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 22 August
