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UPDATE: Match will eventually be played Wednesday, April 27, very important fact considering my argumentation below. Thank you Bogdan for pointing it out in the comments. Seems to have been an error from the official Istanbul Website / Atptennis.com. Still worth 2 units I think.
Illya Marchenko will square off against Lucas Pouille in the first round at the ATP 250 event held on red clay in Istanbul, Turkey.
Marchenko is not quite in his best form at the moment, but he is playing at a decent level. The Ukrainean reached the second round in Bucharest last week, defeating Dudi Sela before losing in two sets to Federico Delbonis – a pretty good performance considering that it was his first tournament of the year on clay. His best performance in 2016 was a semifinal at Doha (defeated Ferrer along the way) and he also reached the quarters at Acapulco.
Lucas Pouille is playing the best tennis of his life, comming after excellent results in his last two tournaments – Round 16 showings at Miami and Monte Carlo, followed by a final in Bucharest last week (lost to Verdasco). Unfortunately for Pouille, he had to play the final in Bucharest on Monday and will square off against Illya Marchenko in Istanbul after just one day, on Tuesday, so this will be a serious problem for him.
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Pouille won the only Head 2 Head meeting, back in 2014 on hard courts. The clay in Istanbul will favor the Frenchman a bit. Both players are all rounders, but Pouille is a bit more adapted on clay than Marchenko, who favors the hard courts.
This is a simple one really. Considering the fact that Pouille played a final in Bucharest on Monday, I reckon it`s worth backing Marchenko to capitalize on his fatigue and win this match on Tuesday. The Ukrainean is a solid player and if Pouille is not at his best, he has the weapons to take advantage.
Sure, Pouille is a young man and could very well recover in a short time, but the fact that he had to play the final on Monday will make things difficult for him. He had to travel, no time to get used with the courts in Istanbul, no time to properly rest. He also lost clearly to Verdasco, so he might be affected mentally as well, even though Pouille did not play badly in that final.
All in all, my tip is Marchenko to win. Low stakes on this bet, odds are already dropping. Prediction: Illya Marchenko – Lucas Pouille 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Marchenko
Odds: 4.05 @ Betsson
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 12.20
Event date: 26 April 27 April
Please do not give false information.the game it s scheduled on wednesday.so pouille has 2 day of rest not one. Thank you
Or it is me ho is giving the false information.in that case i apologize.the fact is that acording to flashscore the game is scheduled on wednesday.
No, you are right, it has been re-scheduled for Wednesday.
I checked with multiple sources, since it was the main argument of my pick and I found it strange myself that he had to play on Tuesday. But Oddsportal, Atptennis, Istanbul website, Betfair had the match on Tuesday.
Maybe the organizers made an error on the official website and it was copied by all websites (most probable), or they re-scheduled it realizing it was unfair for Pouille.
Thank you for the info! Providing correct information is my main objective so I apologize for this, but I did check and double check before posting.
I think it`s still worth a shot, Pouille is still coming after a long week with just 2 days of rest, but obviously it`s not the same. Maybe it`s worth 2 units.
Pouille eventually retired from the tournament. Void bet.
Yeah I was wondering why my stake had just been refunded…..Thanks for clearing that up
no problem 🙂