Pacers – Cavaliers

The Pacers will feel unlucky to return at home trailing 0-2 in this Eastern Conference quarterfinal series, as they had chances to win both games in Cleveland, but fell just short.

Indiana (reg. season: 42-40, 29-12 home) barely made the playoffs in the last match of the regular season and wasn’t expected to trouble the Cavs, especially as the matchup seems bad for Indy. However, the Pacers were really competitive in Cleveland, missing a game winning shot in Game 1 and losing a close Game 2. They came back from large deficits each time and fed on Cleveland’s (very) poor defense, so they will be confident coming back at home, where they have been a much better team this season.

Reigning NBA champions Cleveland (reg. season: 51-31, 20-21 away) have been a mess in the second part of the season, barely registering a 50% winning record since the All Star Break. They lost the first seed in the East to Houston Boston, and they didn`t look that much better in their first two playoffs games. Offense is not a problem, but their defense keeps allowing too many points despite the fact that Cavs were expected to flip a switch and be better in the playoffs.

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Cleveland is still expected to take out Indiana in 4 or 5 games, as they are the much better team, have a favorable matchup and can score in bunches against them. However, they haven`t been unable to stop Paul George & co on the other end of the floor in these first two games.

Cavs will probably get better eventually in the playoffs and reach the finals again, but it`s hard to believe they will be able to finally (and suddenly) find their defensive intensity in this Game 3, in such a tough environment like Indy`s home arena.

The line is currently set at 211 points ad that seems to be rather low. The last 5 meetings between these two sides (including both playoff games) have easily went over 211 points, even though one needed overtime to get there. The totals in those matches were 249, 217, 265 (208 in regulation), 217 and 228 points.

The defensive futility of Cleveland and the matchup between these two teams suggests a high scoring game here, and chances are that they will go over the current points line. What`s more, if the game will be close (as it is expected to be), there could be some late free throws or even overtime to help the bet if needed.

I won`t push the stakes too much, but stats and logic suggest about 220 points here. My tip is over 211 points to be scored. Prediction: Indiana Pacers – Cleveland Cavaliers 108 – 111.

Pick: over 211
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 20 April