Ireland – Italy

Ireland and Italy could have provided us with a reasonably competitive match in other circumstances, but with the Shamrocks pumping on all cylinders and Italy being a complete mess, the Irish will feel confident of winning comfortably. Ireland doesn`t really need too much from this game, a simple win would be enough to put them in a position of needing a draw in the last match against France in order to top the group.

Two time reigning Six Nations Champions, The Shamrocks are rated the best team in Europe right now and you won`t find anybody arguing with that. They have a great generation of players, great mix of youth and experience, with a couple of guys still left from the previous “golden generation” to lead the way (O’Connell, Best, Ross). Joe Schmidt is an excellent coach. Ireland had an easy time so far in the Rugby World Cup, beating Canada by 43 points and Romania by 34 points. Wing play has been truly amazing, as expected, but the Irish were flawless all around, including in the scrum – which dominated a very competent Romanian scrum last weekend.

Suffering from injuries and being on a general downtrend in recent years, Italy was dreadful so far in the RWC. Losing 32-10 to France was a bad sign, but to make matters worse, Italy almost lost to Canada in the previous match, which would have been a massive upset. The Italians are struggling with club rugby right now, many of their best players retired and their current top guys are old. It`s no surprise that Italy were the whipping boys in the 2015 Six Nations, getting blown out by everybody (including Ireland, 3-26 in Rome) despite somehow managing to avoid the last place due to a lucky win against Scotland.

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Team news & lineups:

After resting some first choice players against Romania, Ireland will make a number of changes in the lineup, but will miss Payne and Kearney. Italy finally gets back instrumental captain Sergio Parisse, which will be a huge boost, but Ghiraldini is now a new name on the injury list.

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Josh Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Andrea Manici, 1 Matias Aguero

Italy’s offense has been a complete mess in this tournament and they don`t seem to have ways to make things happen. Against Ireland, who only allowed 17 points in 2 matches (barely), the Italians will have a huge task of scoring even a single try. Lucky for them, Ireland only needs a simple win and will surely take the foot of the gas once victory looks secure, likely resting all top players in the second half. Sergio Parisse’s return should also help Italy be a bit more competitive and ask the Shamrocks a couple of questions.

I expect an underish game, especially with the under / over line being very high at 49 points. Italy doesn`t have the weapons to create danger in the Irish 22, while Ireland does not need to score too much and just wants to stay fresh and healthy. My tip is under 49,5 points to be scored. Prediction: Ireland – Italy 32 – 9.

Pick: under 49,5 points
Odds: 1.92 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 4 October