Ireland – Wales

Dan Biggar Wales

Ireland and Wales will open up their Six Nations campaign with a mouthwatering contest set to be played at the Aviva Stadium and the result of this match will go a long way towards deciding the eventual tournament champions.

Two time reigning Six Nations champions Ireland have been the best team in Europe for the better part of the last two years, but their reign at the top seems to be over. The hosts enter this tournament without a large number of key players, including the retired captain Paul O’Connell. Morale is also not the best after their dominance in the last two years counted for nothing in the World Cup, where their highly fancied team ended up being killed by Argentina in the quarterfinals.

Wales performed admirably in the World Cup. Despite missing virtually half of their starters, the Welsh managed to progress trough the group of death, knocking out England and were minutes away from pulling off the upset against South Africa. With a healthier squad and with a Dan Bigger in fabulous form, the Welsh are looking really good ahead of this tournament – one in which they performed consistently well over the past 5 years or so.

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Team news & lineups:

Legendary captain O’Connell has retired. O’Mahony, Henderson, Henry, O’Brian and Rob Kerney are out for Ireland. Most of them are key players in key positions, very difficult to replace. Leigh Halfpenny is still out for Wales, with Liam Williams also not 100% fit. However, the injury list is much shorter than it was a few months ago in the World Cup.

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Tommy O’Donnell, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Nathan White, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

Wales: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom James, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton (c), 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Rob Evans

Wales won five of the last seven Head 2 Head meetings and, most importantly, defeated Ireland twice last year. It was 23-16 in Cardiff, in the Six Nations and more recently a 16-10 win in Dublin right before the World Cup.

We saw how much losing key players affects Ireland in the World Cup, where a similarly weakened side was demolished by Argentina. The current squad looks even worse than the one back then, when Ireland was missing 5 injured starters, so again it is expected for the Shamrocks to be far from their best.

The formidable Welsh pack shouls own the Irish one, particularly with the hosts missing a couple of key big guys. Dan Biggar will get the best out of Jonathan Sexton – this matchup at the fly half position favors Wales and it’s a crucial one, as the game will likely be decided by penalties. With Kearney out, Ireland will have problems winning a kicking game, like this one is surely set to be. Difficult to see what solutions could Ireland come up with.

Playing without the backbone of your team is a huge disadvantage at this level, especially when we are talking about scrum players and forwards. Home court advantage will help Ireland to some extent, but Wales is the better side right now and should take advantage of Ireland’s weakened roster, as well as the favorable matchup. Wales are the real favorites here, no doubt about that and the odds on the visitors are dropping.

Look for a lot of kicking and a fair number of penalties. Wales is better at this kind of game right now, mostly due to Dan Biggar. They also have a sensible edge in the scrum and in the middle of the pitch. It is their game to lose and I don’t think they will blow it, they are not the kind of team to screw up favorable circumstances, as we saw time and time again in the last years. I expect Wales to win but I will take a little bit of security and tip Wales DNB. A draw could happen and it would be silly to lose the bet that way – especially since the odds are almost the same for a straight win or for the Draw no bet.

With the draw covered, I am comfortable investing maximum stakes on this tip. Back a Welsh win with Draw No Bet security. Prediction: Ireland – Wales 14 – 20.

Pick: Wales DNB
Odds: 2.00 @ Betsafe
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 7 February

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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