Italy – Argentina

Italy hosts Argentina in what will be a crucial rugby test for both sides. Italy and Argentina regularly lose their matches against better sides in the Six Nations and Rugby Championship respectively, so they will view this as a rare occasion to claim a key win against a good team, for confidence, morale and world rankings.

Italy has been really poor over the last few years and 2017 made no exception, as they again finished last in the Six Nations – and quite frankly got embarrassed with the exception of a strange game in England, where they managed to stay relatively close. The Italians have played their first Autumn International last week at home against Fiji (who beat them in the Summer) and claimed an important 19-10 win, although the performance overall wasn`t that impressive.

Argentina has now lost 12 of the last 13 matches played and recently finished last in the Rugby Championship. While the losses were expected considering that Argentina regularly plays the best team in the world, they still affected confidence, and this year the Pumas looked a bit worse than in previous seasons. However, the team is coming after an excellent performance last week in England, where they lost by just 13 points despite being 22 point underdogs.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy was delighted with last week`s win against Fiji and will field the exact same lineup. However, having no fresh legs in the starting XV might be a problem. As for Argentina, they will make 4 changes to the lineup that lost in England, but they will not lose any strength. Sanchez returning at No.10 should actually make them better.

Italy: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Tommaso Boni, 12 Tomasso Castello, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Marcello Violi, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Abraham Steyn, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Sebastian Cancelliere, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Santiago Garcia Botta

The Pumas have won the last six H2H matches against the Azzurri (4 of them in Italy), but most matches were close, including a 6 point win in Santa Fe last year.

Argentina desperately needs a win here, and they will welcome the opportunity of playing Italy after fighting it out all year with the likes of New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England.

While both teams are losing roughly the same amount of matches per year, Argentina plays better opposition, and usually puts up a better fight as well. There is no doubt that they are a superior team to Italy, and their recent performance against England should give them all the confidence they need to claim a key win here.

The Italians are really not in a very good spot, they are not a Tier 1 team anymore and even if they beat Fiji last week, that actually proved how far Italy has fallen. Fiji had a real bad game and they still kept it close, while the Italians celebrated as if they had just beaten New Zealand.

Argentina will be a step up in quality and there`s nothing to indicate Italy will be up for it. There`s not much difference between Argentina and teams like France, Scotland or Wales, who regularly pummel Italy in the Six Nations.

The Pumas can challenge (or even dominate) Italy in the forward game, while Argentina’s wing game is far superior. Quite simply put, they are a level above the Azzurri.

This is a really good chance for Argentina to end the losing streak, and I can see them dominating an inferior Italy side in Florence. I do expect Argentina to cover the relatively low 3.5 point spread, but I prefer to go with maximum stakes on a safer bet, the straight victory. My tip is Argentina to win. Prediction: Italy – Argentina 16 – 28.

Pick: Argentina
Odds: 1.60 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 18 November