Italy – Canada

The Italians will aim to improve on their performance against Namibia when they take on Canada on Thursday in a 2019 Rugby World Cup Pool B clash.

Italy produced a very confusing display on Sunday in their 47-22 victory over Namibia. On one hand Italy was excellent in breaking the Namibian lines time after time and creating big opportunities. On the other hand, they were shocking with the number of handling errors they made, and their finishing was abysmal. It`s fair to say Italy left at the very least 20 points on the table by botching the last pass or dropping the ball in clear scoring positions. And their defense wasn`t that good either. It was a sloppy overall performance in which Italy showed its talent and quality, but much more consistency will be needed from them in this group which also features South Africa and the mighty All Blacks.

Canada, who will play its first match of the tournament, has been going from bad to worse since the 2015 World Cup, and the team is coming to Japan with no form or confidence. Canada needed a re-qualification tournament to reach RWC 2019, where they got comfortable but far from impressive wins against Kenya, Germany and Hong Kong. In the last couple of years the Canadians have suffered some shocking losses to the likes of Uruguay, Russia or Brazil, and were handed a number of humiliating beatings by rivals USA. This year Canada has a 1-7 win / loss record and lost its previous 5 games.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy will make 10 changes to the lineup which took the field against Namibia, which is probably a good idea after a 4 day turnaround. Captain Parisse will be rested, and his absence will be felt. But otherwise the starting lineup and the match squad both look pretty good, and the excellent Campagnaro will be a welcome addition. Canada will field its best available starting XV in their first match of the World Cup, but they do have a couple of important injuries.

Italy: 15. Matteo Minozzi, 14. Tommaso Benvenuti, 13. Michele Campagnaro, 12. Jayden Hayward, 11. Giulio Bisegni, 10. Tommaso Allan, 9. Callum Braley, 8. Braam Steyn, 7. Jake Polledri, 6. Sebastian Negri, 5. Dean Budd (c), 4. David Sisi, 3. Simone Ferrari, 2. Luca Bigi, 1. Andrea Lovotti

Canada: 15. Patrick Parfrey, 14. Jeff Hassler, 13. Ben Lesage, 12. Nick Blevins, 11. DTH Van Der Merwe, 10. Peter Nelson, 9. Gordon McRorie, 8. Tyler Ardron (c), 7. Lucas Rumball, 6. Michael Sheppard, 5. Josh Larsen,4. Conor Keys, 3. Matt Tierney, 2. Eric Howard, 1. Hubert Buydens

In the 2015 World Cup Italy only managed to get a 23-15 win over Canada, but this is not the same Canadian team, and Italy is better as well.

Italy has looked pretty good overall this year with a decent showing in the Six Nations, and Conor O’Shea’s men will be eager to get a second bonus point win in Pool B before taking on giants New Zealand and South Africa.

Facing Canada, even without a few key players, should pose no problem for the Italians.

Canada has been so disjointed in the last few years, and they took such a big step back, that it’s hard to expect anything good from them in this World Cup (aside from some individual play by DTH van der Merwe). There is no indication of them potentially having a good tournament.

Look for Italy to be more careful and secure with the ball after the match against Namibia, as Conor O’Shea surely gave them the business in training after that sloppy performance. In fact, the manager all but promised it: “I am sure that Thursday we will execute our play much better”. The mistakes against Namibia have the potential to make Italy stronger and more dangerous for this Canada game.

And if Italy doesn`t make those shocking errors again, they should get a bit win here. We saw how easy they got through the Namibian lines, and they should be able to replicate that (more or less) against Canada. With less knock ons or botched passes, the tries will come in numbers.

The handicap line seems very accessible here for Italy against a team which lost twice by 25+ points against USA in the last year, also getting spanked by Uruguay, Russia or Brazil.

I`m backing the Italians to cover the -19,5 point handicap, this is a pretty clear cut bet for me here. Prediction: Italy – Canada 41 – 12.

Pick: Italy -19,5
Odds: 2.05 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 26 September