Italy – England

Italy will take on England in Rome, with both teams coming after encouraging performances in the Six Nations first round.

Italy’s 23-21 loss in France was actually a great result. Today’s hosts were huge underdogs, with the spread at about 20 points, but they performed admirably and were inches away from pulling off a massive upset. Italy’s level of play was really a surprise, as they were on the back of a poor World Cup and the squad wasn’t looking good at all. Indeed, France played very poorly and it took a monumental performance from Sergio Parisse for Italy to stay this close, but it was still a remarkable all around display.

England received a lot of undeserved criticism in the last few months. Yes, they were knocked out in the group stages in their home World Cup, but they were not so bad – it was just an incredibly difficult group with Wales and Australia. Former Japan manager Eddie Jones took over after the RWC and now this England side really looks like the team to beat in this Six Nations event. They are on the back of a comfortable 15-9 road win against a pretty decent Scotland side – an easier victory than the score suggests.

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Team news & Lineups:

Compared to the previous round which took place last weekend, Italy will make one change in the lineup, while England will make three.

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Alessandro Zanni, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Marco Fuser, 4 George Fabio Biagi, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Ornel Gega, 1 Andrea Lovotti

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jack Nowell, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola

The Head 2 Head between Italy and England is the most one sided in the Six Nations, as Italy never defeated England in this competition. What’s worse, the Italians were simply blown away by the Three Lions in the last two years: 52-11 in Rome (2014) and 47-17 at Twickenham (2015). Also, comparing to the present, Italy was better in the last two years, while England was weaker.

Italy played well against France, but this team can’t be expected to perform on that level every week. There’s just not too much quality left in this Italian squad with all the retirements and injuries.

I expect the hosts to suffer a letdown, that France defeat took a lot from them both physically and mentally and now they have to face the strongest team in the tournament. Playing at home is usually an important advantage for Italy, but it never counted for much against England.

Listen, England is better in pretty much every aspect of the game, so there’s no debate there, but one thing that really catches my eye is the matchup between Sergio Parisse and Billy Vunipola. Italy is depended on Parisse like no other team in rugby is dependant on a player – he`s literally the difference between winning or losing by 20 points. However, if there’s one guy in Europe that can match him, it’s Vunipola. That means Parisse might not have another monster game and if he doesn’t England should run away with it.

Look for the visitors to be in control, leading by 7-10 points going into the last 30 minutes and then finishing off Italy at the end, as the Italians are usually collapsing late against the top sides. My tip is England to cover the 15,5 point handicap. Keeping the stakes reasonable on the bet, as the spread is pretty high and I am coming after an unusual poor rugby betting day on Saturday. Prediction: Italy – England 9 – 28.

Pick: England -15,5
Odds: 1.93 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.51
Event date: 14 February