Italy – Ireland

Italy Ireland Six Nations betting preview

Italy will host Ireland at the Stadio Olimpico, Rome, in the third round of the 2019 Six Nations.

Italy, currently riding a 19 match losing streak in the Six Nations, will be pretty happy with the results in the first two rounds. The Azzurri lost both games, but kept the score respectable against Scotland away (20-33) and Wales at home (15-26). However, it has to be said that the result against Scotland was misleading, with the Scots completely dominating the game and leading 33-3 before the last 10 minutes, while Wales went to Rome with a second string lineup. As such, there hasn`t really been much progress shown by Italy so far in this competition.

Ireland came into the tournament as the big favorite, after an exceptional 2018 which included a Six Nations Grand Slam and a win over the All Blacks. Unfortunately for the Irish, they did not start as expected, and lost their opening match 20-32 at home against an excellent England side, being second best for the entire duration of the clash. Still, Ireland bounced back firing in the next round with a very solid 22-13 win in Scotland. Ireland will feel there is still a decent chance for them to win the title, especially after Wales defeated England earlier in this round.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy has a couple of injuries ahead of this clash, but none bigger than Sergio Parisse. Their talsimanic captain and best player will miss the clash after sustaining an injury last weekend at club level.

Ireland has no new notable injuries. In fact, they get a couple of players back, and will field a first choice lineup for this clash, although Robbie Henshaw has been left out of the squad.

Italy: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Edoardo Padovani, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Luca Morisi, 11 Angelo Esposito, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Tito Tebaldi, 8 Braam Steyn, 7 Maxime Mbanda’, 6 Jimmy Tuivaiti, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Federico Ruzza, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (c), 1 Andrea Lovotti

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jordi Murphy, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Quinn Roux, 4 Ultan Dillane, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Dave Kilcoyne

While Italy didn`t lose the first two games by big margins, there have definitely been special circumstances, with Scotland taking their foot of the gas late (when leading by 30) and Wales fielding a second string lineup. Against Ireland it will be much more difficult for the Italians to keep the game close, especially considering that now the circumstances are completely against them.

Ireland has traditionally been a nightmarish opponent for Italy, with the Shamrocks winning 24 of the previous 25 H2H meetings.

Since the 2015 World Cup there has been massacre after massacre handed to Italy by Ireland. The Azzuri lost the previous 4 meetings by 43, 53, 37 and 47 points (with Ireland scoring 50+ points each time)! The matchup analysis is not friendly towards Italy here, as the Irish keep on handing them the worse beatings among anybody in the Six Nations.

It doesn`t seem likely for Italy to do better against Ireland this time around. Not only are the Irish one of the Top 3 teams in the World and in great form (that loss to England has been their only blip in 12 months), but they will be desperate to win by as many points as possible. The Championship is wide open after Wales beat England earlier in this round, and Ireland will go all out to get the offensive bonus point, but also get the biggest points differential possible – that may end up being a tiebreaker the end of the tournament.

There`s also the fact that Italy will have to play without Parisse. Even at 35 years old, Parisse is the most important player on this team, and one of the few irreplaceable players in World Rugby. Traditionally, Italy has always been a worse team without him around. His absence is sure to be felt.

Italy always has one or two decent games in the Six Nations, only to get obliterated in the others, and it looks like this will be one of those long nights for them after two decent results.

A 30+ point difference looks likely here considering Parisse`s absence, the H2H, Ireland fielding mostly a first choice lineup, and Ireland`s motivation to win as big as possible. Expect the Irish to run the ball all game past the Italians and put plenty of tries on the board.

My tip will be Ireland to win and cover the 28,5 handicap. After careful consideration, I decided to go with 10/10 stakes on this bet. Prediction: Italy – Ireland 11 – 52.

Pick: Ireland -28,5
Odds: 1.99 @ 10Bet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.90
Event date: 24 February

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. Thanks for yesterday. I hope this will be a winning one too. Ali

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