Italy – Scotland

Italy Scotland Six Nations prediction

Italy and Scotland will open the 5th and last round of the 2018 Six Nations, when they square off at the Olimpico Stadio in Rome on Saturday afternoon.

It has been another disappointing year in the Six Nations for Italy, as the Azzuri lost all their matches and never had the slightest chance of winning any of them. However, they will draw a bit of confidence from the fact that they seemed to get slightly better as the tournament progressed. Italy started off with two blowout losses against England (by 31 at home) and Ireland (by 37 away), before losing by 17 points in France and by 24 points in Wales last week. The last two performances were not great, but Italy did look a little bit better than expected, particularly against Wales.

Scotland is coming after an ugly 8-28 loss in Ireland, a result which ended their slim chances for the title and also confirmed Scotland’s lingering problems in road matches. The Scots were impressive at home in this tournament with wins against England and France, but they were (again) poor away from home, being soundly beaten by Wales and Ireland. A win today would probably see Scotland finish 3rd in the tournament, so that is what they will aim for.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy will make just one change to the team that lost in Wales last week. Scotland will make 5 changes to the lineup that lost in Ireland. While the Scots are still bugged by injuries, there are no new ones, and they actually get a couple of key players back (Nel, Seymour).

Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Giulio Bisegni, 12 Tommaso Castello, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Marcello Violi, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Jake Polledri, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Alessandro Zanni, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Nick Grigg, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Tim Swinson, 3 WP Nel, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Gordon Reid

Italy will be eager to put on a good performance in the last match of the tournament and at least lose by a respectable margin for the first time in a long time, but they will face a similarly motivated Scottish side, which will field an excellent lineup and will be desperate to prove its worth away from home.

The excellent Scots must really improve their performances on the road and they view this as a stepping stone for next season, when they hope to fight for the title. They want a good solid win to give them confidence in their ability to perform away from home, and the strong lineup they will field is proof of their motivation.

Unfortunately for Italy, they have a history of collapsing physically late in tournaments, and it could well be the case again here, especially after they put in a ton of effort last Sunday in Wales. They also have one less day of rest compared to Scotland, which has the potential to be a difference making factor – especially with Scotland having such quick and explosive backs. The scheduling has not been kind to Italy as far as this last round is concerned, and it may well cost them.

While Italy did look a bit more competitive lately against Wales and France, they were still soundly beaten, and the margins of their loses could have been bigger. Interestingly, Italy scored a late try in garbage time in all of the last three matches, which helped them keep the scores more respectable. As they are expected to be more tired in this match against Scotland, this scenario is unlikely to be repeated.

The Italians lost 14 of their last 16 Six Nations by 17 or more points, and the trend should continue in this clash.

Look for a tired Italy to be competitive for 50 minutes or so, but in the end Scotland should run away with the game, punishing the fatigued Italians with their fast and dynamic wide game.

My tip is Scotland to cover the 16,5 point handicap, and this looks like a good solid 8 unit bet to me. Prediction: Italy – Scotland 13 – 35.

Pick: Scotland -16,5
Odds: 2.01 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.08
Event date: 17 March

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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