Italy – Spain

Italy and Spain will square off in arguably the most anticipated Round 16 game of Euro 2016, but there might be a good chance for this match to end up being way below expectations.

Italy failed to impress after beating Belgium 2-0 in the first match. They defetead Sweden in the closing stages of the match, 1-0 and went on to lose 0-1 against Republic of Ireland. Indeed, Italy rested some guys against Ireland and was not motivated to get a result, but still they could have done better, especially up front – as they failed to create too many chances. Italy is playing like they always have, putting defense first, being very pragmatic and tactically sound under coach Antonio Conte.

Spain`s 1-2 loss to Croatia in the final group game means that the Spaniards will now have a more difficult road ahead of them, but they are still one of the best teams in Euro 2016 and are favorites today against Italy. Spain was boring, slow and clueless in the late 1-0 win over Czech Republic, they were much better against Turkey (3-0) and were Ok against Croatia, where they deserved a draw. The team does not look like the one of 4-5 years ago, but this is a strong side nevertheless.

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Team news & lineups:

Candreva is doubtful for Italy, but otherwise both teams can field their best lineups. It`s likely that Candreva will start as well.

Italy: Buffon – Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini – Candreva, Parolo, De Rossi, Giaccherini, Darmian – Pelle, Eder

Spain: De Gea – Juanfran, Pique, Ramos, Alba – Fabregas, Busquets, Iniesta – Silva, Morata, Nolito

This Italy team is a bit faster than in the past, even if the talent is way below what they had. Italy proved it can play spectacular football with this squad, having a great counterattacking ability, but so far it hasn`t been the case in this tournament – they look more like the Italy of old. With Spain set to play its slow paced passing game, this match might not have many goal scoring opportunities.

I think Spain is playing well enough to not lose this match, but I don`t think they are playing good enough to win. We know Italy will defend well, so Spain`s possession game might not be enough, as they will have problems finding openings in the Italian back line.

Spain and Italy have a way of nullifying eachother due to the styles and matchup. It`s no wonder 3 of the last 5 matches have been draws and I can see another one happening today, in a close match.

My tip is a draw. The bookies did a good job of setting lower odds than usual on the draw, but there will always be value on a tie game in a match like this. Odds 3.00 are still very good for this bet. Prediction: Italy – Spain 0-0 (Spain qualifies via penalties).

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.05 @ 18Bet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12.30
Event date: 27 June