DeGale – Bute

Current champion James DeGale of Britain (21-1, 14 KO) and Lucian Bute of Romania (32-2, 25 KO) will square off for the IBF Supper Middleweight title of the world in Quebec, in Bute’s adoptive Canada. The Brit is rated as a huge favorite by the bookies for the Saturday night / Sunday morning fight at prices between 1.15 and 1.20, while Bute is getting massive odds of over 6.00 at some top Sportsbooks despite having home court advantage.

Lucian Bute gets what will likely be his last title shot against James DeGale here. The Romanian held this IBF title for 5 years and 10 fights before suffering his first loss, an obliteration at the hands of Carl Froch in Nottingham. Lucian has never looked the same since, suffering injuries, long layoffs and changing coaches. After the Froch fight (and a routine win over Grachev) he took an ill-advised fight against Jean Pascal, which he lost via points – looking mentally broken, afraid to attack against a rival for which he went up in weight to light heavyweight, not a good division for Bute.

Bute had only one fight in almost two years and it was a 4th round KO three months ago against Andrea Di Luisa, but it was a rather unimpressive performance against a very poor opponent. Since the Froch loss, the boxing world concluded that Bute was over hyped, as he never faced any top class opponents before Carl and looked pathetic in his two big fights against the Brit and Pascal. While that might be true, the tide has turned to the point that Bute is now vastly underrated, with everybody considering him a washed up fighter who never had any skill and is now unable to challenge any decent fighter.

Talking about over hyped fighters, James DeGale might be one. Listen, the Brit is an Olympic champion, the current IBF supermiddleweight title holder and clearly a great talent at 29 years old. However, his resume on the pros is not impressive at all. He had 2 tough fights in his career (none against top class opposition) – one lost to George Groves a while back and the other, his last fight, a win over Andre Dirrell in which he gained the title. The performance against Dirrell was not that good – Degale dominated the first 5-6 rounds, but tired towards the end and looked really bad late in the fight, raising questions (again) about his stamina. And Dirrell is by no means a top class fighter, nowhere near the quality of Bute in his prime.

I have eyed this match since it was announced and I feel that a bet on Bute holds tremendous value. DeGale is the champion and deserves to be a favorite, most boxing experts see him as a lock to win and many expect a destruction of Bute, but the reality is different. DeGale might be talented, but frankly the only thing in his resume that deserves high praise is his Olympic title, as he really did not do anything special on the pros and looked vulnerable and shaky in his fights against decent opposition. On the other hand, the Romanian has plenty of skill and proved that he has what it takes to beat a guy like DeGale, the only question is if he is still able to do it it today, in 2015, after so many problems.

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Bute has the height, DeGale has the reach, but the differences are rather small. The Brit will try to not let Bute set into any rhythm, which means he must stay active and fast, throwing combinations, as speed will be the key to his gameplan. Bute will likely aim to hold the center of the ring and control with his jab, making the fight slower and more “technical”, also looking for opportunities to land his famous left handed uppercut.

There are clearly many unknowns about Bute at this point. If he is not close to his old level and puts on performances like against Froch and Pascal, he will surely lose. However, if the long layoff, his win over Di Luisa and the new coach helped, he is in with a massive shot here. The key for the Romanian is to stay in the fight early and that is exactly when DeGale will try to gain an advantage. If the Brit takes control in the first few rounds, he could end up with an easy win, but if Bute holds his own, he becomes the favorite in the second part of the match, when his big shots will punish a potentially tired DeGale. If Dirrell had Bute’s weapons, he would have KO’d Degale in his last fight.

I have to admit I don`t feel too confident about Bute’s pre-match statements, as he blabbed about being a “New Bute”, “back at his best” and “rested, happy, thinking more about himself” – I heard these statements before form fighters and they generally mean the end of a career. However, DeGale did not sound better either, openly admitting that he accepted to fight in Canada for the money and that he has no stress about the match, expecting to win in no more than 6 rounds – but at the same time begging for his performance not to be judged compared to the one Froch put on against Bute, which sounds kind of hypocritical and maybe suggesting he knows Bute can beat him.

Bottom line: Will Bute win? The consensus is by far that he will not, though I slightly disagree. But can Bute win? Yes, without a shadow of a doubt. I am more than happy to bet on unknown factors and on a guy who could be great or could be poor as long as the odds are so high. A very important argument is also the fact that Bute is a knockout artist, proven to take down opponents with a single shot, particularly his left uppercut to the body. When you have a guy that can win in this style, at odds going towards 7.00 and without any real difference in quality, the bet should be taken on this motive alone. Bute will also be the more motivated fighter here, as this is a career defining fight for him, while DeGale simply expects to get an easy win and cash in his biggest paycheck.

My tip is Bute to win and I actually believe the Canadian – adopted Romanian will be able to pull it off as long as he regains his old form (which I have to say is a big “If”). He would have been much better off with another preparation match before this fight and it’s not good for Bute to come in after facing only Di Luisa this year – but looking at the odds, I will bet high stakes here, accepting the potential loss with confidence that this was the right bet to take. Lucian Bute never lost in Quebec and has better chances to stay undefeated here than the odds suggest. As a side note, you can watch DeGale – Bute live streaming via our live streaming section, as TV coverage for the match will be very slim – it looks like the showdown won’t even be on in Romania. Prediction: Lucian Bute wins via 11th round KO.

Pick: Lucian Bute
Odds: 6.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 44
Event date: 29 November