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James Duckworth will take on marathon man Andrea Arnaboldi in the first round of Roland Garros.
Duckworth is having by far his best season up to date, but playing on clay has been a different matter. The Australian is clearly a hard court player with his strong serve and forehand, he almost defeated Federer this season on hard courts and had amazing results, climbing to the Top 100 for the first time. On the red dirt, he did win some matches this year, but against poor opponents – his best victory was against Menendez Maceiras, while he lost to Pella, Zemjla, Zopp and most recently Coric in Nice, 3-6 6-7.
Arbanboldi had a very difficult road in the qualies, playing three sets in all of his matches, including the historic win over Herbert, 6-4 3-6 27-25. He went on to get past Trungelliti in another three setter in the third qualifying round, something I really did not expect – though Arnaboldi was very, very lucky to win that game, coming back from 2-5 in the second set. All in all a great tournament for Arnaboldi, he surely made a name for himself as a fighter after he has been rated the exact opposite for most of his career (and for good reason). He will come into this match with great morale and the three days of rest will help him regain his fitness.
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The Head 2 Head is 2-0 for Duckworth, with both wins coming in futures tournaments in 2013. However, both Head 2 Head meetings took place on hard courts. Clay is a big advantage for Arnaboldi, though the fact that it is faster in Roland Garros will help Duckworth close the gap in this department.
I can see Duckworth winning this. The surface might favor Arnaboldi, but he didn`t have better success on it this season compared to the Australian. Andrea’s road in the qualies was impressive in terms of fitness and fighting spirit, but in all honesty needing a 27-25 third set in order to defeat Herbert (who’s pretty much a poor’s man Duckworth) and almost losing to Trungelliti is not exactly something to shout about.
Arnaboldi has seen huge variations in his level of tennis in all his qualifying matches and I reckon that will be punished by a guy like Duckworth who is really stable and consistent, having a good serve to rely on as well. The faster clay in Paris will also help Duckworth to play a bit better tennis than he usually does on clay. And even though three days of rest will make a big difference for Arnaboldi, he is expected to feel the effect of those long qualifiers if this match goes to distance. My tip is Duckworth to win, odds going down big time on this one right now. Prediction: James Duckworth – Andrea Arnaboldi 7-6 6-4 2-6 6-4.
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Pick: Duckworth
Odds: 1.70 @ SmartLiveSports
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.3
Event date: 26 May
