Japan – Russia

Japan Russia Rugby World Cup prediction

The 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan will kickstart on Friday with the host nation taking on Russia. The two teams have been drawn in Pool A, alongside Ireland, Scotland and Samoa.

Japan is still remembered for springing up the biggest upset in Rugby World Cup history when they beat South Africa in 2015, and the Cherry Blossoms have been preparing for this home World Cup ever since. Japan has continued to get better in the last 4 years under Jamie Joseph, getting some impressive results like a draw in France or big wins over Georgia or Italy. Japan seems to enter this RWC 2019 in great form, having played great rugby to win the Pacific Nations Cup in August with convincing victories over Fiji, USA or Tonga. The hosts did lose their last pre World Cup friendly 7-41 against South Africa two weeks ago, but that is definitely not a result you can hold against them.

Russia might well be the weakest team in this World Cup, competing for this title with Namibia and Canada, and fact is they do not deserve to be here. Russia finished 4th behind Georgia, Romania and Spain in the European race for qualification, but they managed to get Romania and Spain disqualified after appealing that the two Nations used ineligible players. After a massive scandal, Russia managed to win its appeal, thus taking Romania’s second place and qualifying for the World Cup. The Russians have done nothing of note in the last four years, routinely getting spanked by Georgia, Romania and Spain in the Rugby Europe Championship, and their most recent achievements are a 15-85 loss in a pre – World Cup friendly against Italy in August, and a 22-35 loss to English Championship side Jersey Reds in the same month.

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Team news & lineups:

Japan has a strong squad for this tournament, with most of the players coming from Sunwolves, Japan’s franchise which is competing in the elite Super Rugby tournament. As for Russia, they do not have a lot of talent at their disposal. Only two players are competing abroad (Ostrikov – Grenoble, Morozov – Sale Sharks). The rest of the guys are playing in the domestic Russian League, most of them for Enisey and Krassny Yar, which are two fringe Challenge Cup sides.

Japan: Tupou; Matsushima, Lafaele, Nakamura, Lemeki; Tamura, Nagare; Inagaki, Horie, Valu; Van der Walt, Moore; Leitch (c), Labuschagne, Himeno.

Russia: Artemyev (c); Davydov, Ostroushko, Gerasimov, Golosnitskiy; Kushnarev, Dorofeev; Morozov, Selskii, Gotovtsev, Ostrikov, Fedotko, Zhivatov, Gadzhiev, Vavilin

Russia should be no match for Japan here. The Russians have no business being at this World Cup and they showed no improvement since last year, when they found out they will be here after Romania’s disqualification. Looking at their pre – World Cup results, one could be actually scared for the Russians in this tournament. Losing 15-85 to Italy and 22-35 at home to an English second division club side is not good news at all.

Russia’s main and pretty much only strength (at this level) is its scrum, and they will try to use that as often as possible, although Japan’s scrum is also massively improved, and should be able to raise to the challenge.

But Japan, with its speed and pace, will run circles around the immobile Russians. Japan’s exceptional running game seems like a matchup made in hell for the static and robust Russian side. It should be a cascade of wing tries by Japan, especially looking how bad the Russian defense looked recently.

Really the only reason of hope for Russia is the fact that they only lost 27-32 to Japan in a friendly game in England last year. They will cling to that performance, but in all honesty Japan was coming after a big match with England, and didn`t really care much about the Russia game. They fell behind 10-22 early, but once they woke up, they easily won the second half 22-5.

The bookies set the point spread pretty high indeed at 39,5 points, and it has to be said that Japan will be under a lot of pressure in this opening game, and that can sometimes have an unwanted effect. Captain Michael Leach himself acknowledged that there have been nerves even in training.

But at the same time Japan will be desperate to put on a show and win by as much as possible in front of their own fans, and of course get the crucial bonus point.

Russia does not have the quality to compete at this level, and does not seem prepared for this World Cup. They have been routinely beaten by 10, 20 or 30 points by teams like Romania, Georgia or Uruguay in the last few years, and USA even gave them a 49 point drubbing back in June last year. Japan is at a level above, and considering their attacking mindset, they should be able to win by 40+ if they keep their heads together and don`t fold under pressure. My tip will be Japan to cover the -39,5 point handicap. Prediction: Japan – Russia 55 – 8.

Pick: Japan -39,5
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 20 September

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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