Clarke – Federer

The 21 year old local favorite Jay Clarke will play the match of his life on Thursday, when he meets Roger Federer in the Wimbledon second round.

Clarke got a Wildcard for the main draw, and that surely served him well, as he would have had a tough time qualifying considering his form. The 169th ranked Clarke was on a 6 match losing streak prior to SW19, with some really bad losses during that run. He did manage to get past Rubin in a tight four setter in the opening round, but in all honesty it was a low level match against an opponent in similarly bad form, who never had much success on grass.

Federer entered Wimbledon on the back of a championship run in Halle, where he played well and navigated through a difficult draw to win his record 10th title there. Roger was an overwhelming favorite in the first round against Harris, but struggled a bit at the start and lost the first set 3-6. However, he quickly regained composure and cruised for the rest of the match, eventually winning easily: 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2.

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This will be the first meeting between the two players, but it`s easy to see from an analysis of styles that Clarke doesn`t have the tools to put pressure on Roger. The surface will favor Federer, even if the courts at Wimbledon seem slower than ever this year. It`s still grass, his best surface, while Clarke (surprisingly for a British player) has never played well on the green, where he has an abysmal 7-18 record at all senior levels.

Clarke is quite possibly the easiest opponent Federer could have asked for in this second round. He`s poor on grass, he`s in bad form and doesn`t have any weapons to trouble Roger – not even a particularly strong serve. He lost to guys like Londero on Donskoy this season on grass, it doesn`t really get much worse than that. In the first round, he met another struggling player in Rubin, which allowed him to edge a tight four setter of average tennis.

Of course, Clarke will be pumped up for this clash and will give it his all, but that can only work to an extent – especially since Federer will also be a bit more focused.

Having the experience of losing the first set against Harris in the first round, Federer will surely want to avoid spending more time on the court. He now got his feet under him after playing a match, and he showed in the last three sets against Harris (a stronger opponent than Clarke) that he can easily get the job done quick if he wants to.

Considering the huge difference between the two players, the surface and Federer wanting to avoid what happened in the previous round, this should be a walk in the park for him. The 9,5 game handicap indeed seems massive, but Clarke doesn`t own a special serve to earn him a ton of free points, so Roger should have opportunities on most return games – especially with the slower surface.

My tip will be Federer to cover the -9,5 game handicap. If you can find the -9 asian at your bookie, you can take that if you want more security, at odds around 1.55 – 1.60. Prediction: Jay Clarke – Roger Federer 2-6 1-6 4-6.

Pick: Federer -9,5 games
Odds: 1.88 @ Jetbull
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 4 July