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Jiri Vesely and Guillermo Garcia Lopez will square off in a somewhat surprising Bucharest final, but both guys fully deserve to be in the last act at the Nastase Tiriac Trophy.
Vesely lost his first set this week on Saturday against red hot Gimeno Traver, but the Czech player did very well to come back from 0-1 and win in convincing fashion against a very dangerous player (2-6 6-1 6-4). Vezely previously routed Karlovic, Jaziri and Schwartzman. The youngster is clearly playing his best tennis right now, particularly his serving being excellent – he suffered 5 break of serves, but all of them were against Schwartzman and Gimeno Traver, great returners who also converted 100% of their break points against Jiri Vesely.
Garcia Lopez pulled of one of the biggest upsets of the tournament in the semifinals, playing some of his best tennis to get past Gael Monfils in three sets (6-7 6-4 6-2). Monfils wasn`t quite at his best, but he wasn`t far from his optimal level, so Garcia Lopez’s victory was really impressive The Spaniard previously defeated Rosol, Baghdatis and Giustino without losing a set – and similar to Vesely he served particularly well, allowing only 4 breaks of serve in 4 matches, which is pretty impressive on clay. Monfils had only 2 break points in 3 sets against the Spaniard. He will play his second final in Bucharest, after losing to Rosol two years ago.
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The two players never met on the ATP tour before, but they do have three meetings at challenger level in 2012 and 2013. All of them were on clay and Garcia Lopez leads the Head 2 Head 2-1, but Vesely won the last match 6-2 6-2.
This should come down to a couple of points here and there, Vesely and Garcia Lopez are both playing to well for either of them to be able to dominate. Vesely is probably the best choice on the moneyline market due to higher odds, but my input for the best bet to take is over 22 games. The line is at 22.5, but I will buy half a point to cover a possible 7-6 6-3, with the odds remaining very competitive, 1.81 at Pinnacle.
Expect some great shotmaking from the two players, good serving and a lot of intense rallies, not too many unforced errors. The way Vesely and Garcia Lopez served in this tournament is a massive argument for the over 22 games bet. I can`t see any of the two giving this up easy, an ATP title doesn`t come the way of Vesely or Garcia Lopez every week. Both will give it their all and have the arguments to win the Nastase Tiriac Trophy. My tip is over 22 games. Prediction: Jiri Vesely – Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 7-6 4-6 6-4.
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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.29
Event date: 26 April
