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This has to be one of the most high profile 4th round clashes in recent Grand Slam history. Due to some circumstantial drop in rankings the two will meet in the first day of the US Open second week and we are set to see some masterclass tennis here.
Tsonga had a poor year until a couple of weeks ago, when he came up with some of the best tennis of his life to win the Toronto Masters, beating Federer, Djokovic and today`s opponent, Murray. He quickly exited Cincinnati next week (lost to Youzhny) but of course he was tired after the heroics at Toronto. It was a question mark if Tsonga can reproduce that level of play at the US Open but so far he looked extremely sharp, lost a set early in the first round against Monaco but from than on he cruised and his serve looked excellent. It has to be said however that Tsonga was not tested, meeting poor opposition, so that could make a difference against Andy.
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Murray did not meet much better opposition than the frenchman but struggled a bit more, losing sets to Haase (first round) and Kuznetsov (3rd round). The performance against Kuznetsov is a sign of worry for Murray`s camp as he should have improved his level in the 3rd round. The Brit came back after back surgery this year and did not manage to regain his top level of tennis, as he consistently lost against the top 10 players and failing to reach a single final. His movement is not at the same level and his second serve is a big problem. Andy reached two quarterfinals in the pre – US Open Masters tournaments, losing to Tsonga and Federer.
The H2H is 9-2 for Murray (1-1 this year, 5-2 on hard) and it`s obviously he knows how to play Tsonga, this will be a big advantage for him. Still, Jo will take confidence from the fact he defeated Andy 7-6 4-6 6-4 a couple of weeks ago in Toronto and maybe Andy does not have the same game right now as he did before the surgery.
I would have liked slightly higher odds on Jo Wilfried, but a bet on Tsonga to win is still worth backing at the current price, as there`s no way in my eyes that Murray has over 50% chances to win it. Tsonga is the in form player right now, he looked better in the pre – US Open tournaments and played better at the US Open as well. He proved he can beat Murray and he has the experience of beating top players in Grand Slams. Andy will surely keep it close, but his second serve is just not good enough and that is why I expect Jo to win. If he comes up with the same consistency as in the last few weeks he will absolutely destroy the Murray second serve, putting big pressure on the Brit. Of course Andy is still a top class tennis player and the H2H is very important, so I will keep the stakes on this bet reasonable, but Tsonga should edge it. My tip is Tsonga to win. Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Andy Murray 3-6 6-3 7-6 4-6 7-5.
Pick:Tsonga
Odds: 2.26 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.82
Event date: 1 September
