Millman – Johnson

Millman Johnson Winston Salem prediction

John Millman will meet local favorite Steve Johnson in the Winston Salem quarterfinals on Thursday.

UPDATE: Match postponed due to rain, rescheduled for Friday.

Millman hasn`t really performed at his best level this season, and he`s still not quite at his best despite putting on some decent showings lately. The Australian reached the second round at the recent Montreal Masters, passing qualifications and the first round before losing pretty easily against Cilic. The next week, he lost in the first qualifying round in Cincinnati. Here in Winston Salem he struggled against Cecchinato in his first match, with Cecchinato being completely out of form and a non factor on hard courts. Millman won in three sets before getting an easier two set win in the next round against Haase.

Steve Johnson is a player who, like Millman, also had a rather poor season, but if we are talking about short term form, the situation changes completely. After struggling for much of the year, Johnson has found his form two weeks ago at the Aptos challenger, where he cruised and won without losing a set. He played great there and surely gained a lot of confidence, because this week at Winston Salem he is killing it. Johnson destroyed Moutet, Evans and Ruud in the last two days: 6-3 6-3, 6-3 6-1 and 6-2 7-6. This will be his fourth match in three days.

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The H2H is 3-1 for Johnson (2-0 on hard courts). Millman won the previous meeting this year at the Madrid Masters, a tight 7-6 7-6 victory on clay, but he was completely dominated by Johnson in the other three meetings, all of which took place in 2016. Johnson won 5 sets out of 6 in those meetings, four of them with 6-3 or less.

The surface won`t have an impact, as both these guys are hard court players, but the venue could favor Johnson, who performs well on US soil and always played well at Winston Salem. He reached the quarterfinal stage 4 times, including a semifinal and a final (last year).

Johnson did play three matches in two days while Millman played only two, but Johnson was quick to dispatch his opponents and only spent 4 more minutes on the court than the Australian. He had no issue on Wednesday after playing two matches on Tuesday, he was running around like a bunny against Ruud, so fatigue doesn`t seem like it should be a problem at all.

Watching Johnson this week at Winston Salem, it`s hard to go against him in this tournament. He`s playing his best tennis right now, he`s steady, consistent, he`s often aggressive, he serves well and is moving well. It feels like it would take something or someone special to defeat him, and Millman doesn`t look like that guy right now.

The Australian is a dangerous opponent and is playing pretty well himself, but he has not been anywhere near as dominant as Johnson. He managed to lose a set against Cecchinato and, while he defeated Haase 6-3 6-4, that was a pretty tight match with a lot of long games. Millman was under real pressure a couple of times, and Haase is a player who had a miserable year and wasn`t playing that well.

I am going to trust Johnson here. I expect the odds to drop pretty heavily, maybe even around 1.50, just like it happened in the previous round against Ruud (when he went from 1.65 to 1.45), so I would take this one early. I do think Johnson is a solid bet at anything above 1.50, so at the current odds I`m going to back him with max stakes. If you can`t find odds above 1.60, I would decrease the stakes a bit. Prediction: John Millman – Steve Johnson 4-6 7-6 3-6.

Pick: Johnson
Odds: 1.67 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.70
Event date: 22 August

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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