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Del Potro – Djokovic

Del Potro Djokovic US Open final betting preview

Juan Martin Del Potro will look to claim his second Grand Slam title in only his second Grand Slam final when he faces Novak Djokovic on Sunday night at the US Open, but the in form Serbian will also be confident of lifting another major crown.

Del Potro has been at his best level throughout the tournament, losing just one set along the way (vs Isner) despite meeting some dangerous opponents like Verdasco, Coric, Isner himself and especially Rafa Nadal. Indeed Del Potro was lucky that Nadal had to retire at 6-7 2-6 in their semifinal clash due to knee issues, but the Argentinian did his job profesionally during the match. That is not always easy to do against an opponent which seems hurt, especially if that opponent is Rafa Nadal, and it speaks volumes about Delpo’s confidence.

Djokovic has been the man to beat on the ATP tour in the last few months, and right now there`s no doubt that the Serbian ace is truly back at his best. After winning at Wimbledon Djokovic also won Cincinnati, and now here he is in the US Open final, playing better and better with each passing round. Nole only lost two sets (both in the first two rounds) and raised his level in the next stages, making light work of opponents like Gasquet, Millman or Nishikori. After the 2nd round, Nole wasn`t even pushed beyond 6-4 in a set.

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Djokovic leads the H2H 14-4 (10-3 on hard courts) and won the last three meetings against Del Potro – the last one in 2017. It could be fair to say that Djokovic has a matchup advantage against Delpo, as his secure and consistent baseline defense often ends up frustrating and exhausting Delpo. However, many of their matches have been close.

It is hard to go against Djokovic in this current form and indeed most logical arguments indicate he should win this match. But Del Potro is playing at a very high level himself and most importantly he is a big match player, so it might not be smart to count him out in this one.

Del Potro at his current level is a danger to any player on the tour, including Djokovic. With his famous heart and with the fans behind him, it`s reasonable to expect at least periods of ‘out of this world’ tennis from him, in which his forehand will be able to break even the exceptional defense of Djokovic.

These are two guys with big match DNA and Grand Slam DNA, and when both are in this kind of form, it is unlikely any one of them will go down without a fight. At least 4 sets look likely here and chances are there will be at least a tiebreak among them. As such, the 40 points game line seems accessible if you`re thinking about betting on the over.

Look for a great show in this final and my tip will be over 40 games to be played. Prediction: Juan Martin Del Potro – Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-5 4-6 6-7.

Pick: over 40 games
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 9 September

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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2 Responses

  1. Do u just looking for a good show or think there is a value is this line with this odds? My point is if you think Djoko will win in 4 and Djoko is the best returner and baseliner that can get Del Potro frustrated and exhausted there are chance of tie break and less tight set as well. So this line so does seems accessable but not seems lower than fair given your analysis

    • I don`t know what more to say, it seems to me you took some things I wrote way too literally, ignoring context and other paragraphs. Yes if Djokovic is at his best he can eventually wear out Delpo with his defense, but if that happens it will likely happen late in the match. Personally I expect at least 4 sets and very possibly a tiebreak, which makes the 40 games line an attractive proposition for me given that there`s also the possibility of 5 sets.

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