My bet for Wednesday is Bertens vs Wozniacki in the round of 16 of the Madrid WTA Masters.
The head-to-head would scare off most of the punters, as Wozzy leads a clean 3-0. But the reality behind this lead is another one. Wozniacki won all matches on hard courts, while only two of them were played in the last year. The only meeting they had this year was won by Woz 6-4 6-3 in January in Australian Open (3R). Bertens was priced 4.80+ that time and played a solid match, to be honest. She lost serve in the 1st set being *4-5 down, while in the second set she had 4 break back points when Wozniacki served for the match. I would say it was really close, but the surface played its part in the end.
The most important fact in the match-up is that Bertens loves clay and is by far the better clay-court player. Bertens has an impressive clay record with 213 wins and 78 losses, while Woz has 110 wins and 56 losses. Considering that Woz is 1 year older and was always ranked better, you can assume that she doesn’t really like this surface.
Since 2011 Wozniacki played just 54 clay-court matches, and won just 31 of them! Caro never played her best tennis in Madrid, or on clay. This season she played 5 matches on red dirt and won 4 of them, but the story is another one yet again. The win over Errani was an over 2-hour dogfight, while the last match against Barty she almost lost, despite being 6-2 *4-3 up. She ‘managed’ to get down 6-2 4-6 3-4*, won in the end, but the performance was horrible against a player that barely knows how to play on dirt herself, Barty.
Bertens, on the other hand, comes with better numbers on clay. She has a 23-5 record in 2016, 22-6 record in 2017 and 8-1 record in 2018. This year she also won the Charleston tournament, defeating in-form players like Keys and Goerges. Last year she played Madrid and did it well, getting into the QF`s, where she lost to a red-hot Sevastova.
Look, in the end, Wozniacki is the better player overall, the one with a better pedigree, but on clay we have another story to tell. The odds are so low on Wozniacki just because of her pedigree, combined with the advantage she has in the H2H.
Considering every factor like the past matches (and I saw most of them), the „love“ Wozzy is carrying for clay, or the current form, I really think Bertens shouldn’t be priced higher than 1.80. I am going with 10 units on the Dutch player.