Reykjavik – Celtic

Champions League football on the cards, as the second qualifying round kicks off today with the first leg. KR Reykjavik will look to get a famous result when they host the mighty Celtic Glasgow in Iceland, but the visitors will be keen on not repeating last years’ scenario, when they lost the first leg 2-0 at Shakhter Karagandy, needing a 3-0 home win to barely qualify.

Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavik is the most successful club in Iceland. After a bad run since 2003 to 2011, they finally managed to put things together and came back to win the title 2 times in the last 3 years. The previous season was always always going to go KR’s way, they have a good squad and played very good football. However, this year KR is only 3rd in the league after 11 rounds – they will have to overcome their shaky form and unimpressive history in Europe in order to stand a chance against a top class opponent like Celtic.

With Glasgow Rangers out of the picture, Celtic cruised in the domestic league. The last 2 years have been very good for the Hoops, as they performed in Europe as well, but it looks like this season might be the hardest of them all. Manager Lennon, widely regarded as the key to Celtic’s success, has left the club and his replacement is a young, unproved Norwegian manager (even if he did win the title with Stromsgodset). More so, Celtic’s key man Samaras has left the club and the visitors are having all sorts of squad problems for this game – all without making any notable transfers this summer.

Team news

THe Reykjavik side is reported to be relatively healthy ahead of this game, no big absentees. For Celtic things don`t look so good: Samaras is gone, captain Brown is out, as well as James Forrest. Key defenders Lustig and Ambrose are doubtful – Ambrose might start, Lustig will most likely watch from the stands.

Clearly Celtic is the better team here, and they will be encouraged by the fact that KR is not in top form and that the hosts have underperformed in Europe for a long time. However, will these advantages be enough for Celtic? They might not be, considering the current problems of the Scots. The visitors miss a lot of key players for this game, and it will also be their first match under the new management. Additionally, Celtic is well known for performing horribly on the road in Europe (we also saw it last year against Karagandy) and Reykjavik has the important advantage of playing competitive football at the moment, while Celtic is basically in the middle of the training camp . I also talked about KR’s shaky form, but after all they had 4 consecutive convincing wins until 5 days ago, when they lost against Thor while thinking at the Celtic game. Not lastly, Reykjavik is known as a very solid home team.

Taking all these factors into account, I feel the hosts have a great chance to at least get a draw in this game. Celtic is nowhere near it`s best at the moment and Reykjavik can capitalize if they put on a spirited performance, which they surely will. My tip is 1x double chance, but of course I will keep the stakes reasonable, a 5 unit is bet is more than enough to get us a good return of investment at these odds. Prediction:  Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavik – Celtic 1-1.

Pick: 1x
Odds: 3.4 @ Bet365
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 15 July