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Edmund – Shapovalov

Edmund Shapovalov betting preview

Kyle Edmund and Denis Shapovalov will square off Friday evening in the quarterfinals at the ATP Masters event in Madrid.

Edmund has been on fire so far this week, navigating through a very difficult draw to reach the quarters, and doing it in style. He opened his campaign with an easy win against Medvedev, before getting the best of Novak Djokovic in three sets in his next match. His best performance came in Round 16, when he made light work of David Goffin, defeating the in form Goffin 6-3 6-3.

Shapovalov had an easier draw, meeting Sandgren and Paire in his first two matches, and having serious problems against the Frenchman – eventually edging him in a tight three setter. The Canadian went on to meet Milos Raonic in Round 16 and put on a good performance to claim a 6-4 6-4 victory. Shapovalov will be happy with his level of play here in Madrid considering that he was in very poor form on clay prior to the tournament.

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The H2H is tied at 2-2 with all meetings taking place in the last 15 months, but this will be the first one on clay. Edmund won the only meeting this year, in Brisbane, and will be heavily favored by the surface.

The Brit is a very competent clay court player and is arguably at his best on the red dirt, having some success this year as well with a final in Marrakech (which he lost to Andujar despite being a heavy favorite). Meanwhile, for Shapovalov this is the worst surface. He can play on clay (proved it at futures level), but at the higher levels he was not good on the surface. Actually, the Canadian got his first win on clay at ATP level this week (!!), having a win – loss record of 0-6 at this level before Madrid.

Edmund has definitely been the better player of the two this week, winning his matches easier than Shapovalov despite having a much more difficult schedule. Shapovalov had a good week himself, but he was fortunate to have an accessible draw – even Raonic being out of form and not a clay court expert.

If Edmund plays the same tennis he played in all his three matches this week, he should win this match. Expect the Brit to make less errors and frustrate Shapovalov with his steady game from the baseline. Edmund is just in better form, both short term and long term, and is without a doubt the better player on clay.

My tip is Edmund to win. It has to be said that he has a history of unpredictability, sometimes dropping his level when you least expect it, but that is a risk I am willing to take. All logic indicates Edmund should win this, so I will bet on him to do just that. Prediction: Kyle Edmund – Denis Shapovalov 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Edmund
Odds: 1.50 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.00
Event date: 11 May

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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