Mayer – Isner

Leonard Mayer will meet John Isner in the second round at Beijing, this match being the first one scheduled to be played on Thursday morning (European time).

Leonardo Mayer played very well in the Summer, reaching two finals on clay and winning one (Hamburg), also playing in the third round at the US Open. However, he hasn`t started great in this Asian hard court swing, losing 2-6 2-6 to Gojowczyk last week in Chengdu (first round) and playing a poor match in his opener here in Beijing, even if he eventually defeated Lorenzi 7-6 5-7 6-4.

Isner is on the back of a solid 6-2 6-3 win against Malek Jaziri and even if the opponent was not the strongest, Big John played good, steady tennis in that match. This was Isner’s first outing since losing to Zverev in the US Open third round, although he did participate in the Laver Cup two weeks ago – playing very well in that exhibition, even defeating Nadal 2-0.

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Isner leads the H2H 2-0, but both meetings were on clay. The last one was this year in Houston, with Isner winning 6-7 7-6 6-3. A surface and matchup analysis won`t reveal much here, neither player seems to have an edge in these departments.

Mayer was really poor against Lorenzi on Tuesday, it was an ugly match with the Argentinean making a lot of errors and he was lucky not to lose in two sets. Lorenzi was poor himself, and eventually a few good games from Mayer in the third set got him over the edge, just barely. Mayer also played very poorly last week in Chengdu, so his level right now is not good.

Isner on the other hand is looking solid, he was consistent in the first round and he will fancy his chances here.

Mayer is an inconsistent player, dangerous when he`s at his best, but often beating himself when he`s not in his top form, and he definitely isn`t right now. Shooting himself in the foot with errors and double faults could be fatal against Isner, a guy against which you can`t afford a single bad service game, or the set is over.

Unless Mayer dramatically increases his level, he should lose this match in two sets. The fact that a tiebreak is very possible does create some extra risk on this bet, but Big John would still be a clear favorite in any tiebreak that occurs, particularly as Mayer had real difficulties to win points on serve in succession in his opening round match against Lorenzi.

My tip here will be Isner to cover the 1,5 set handicap and win this 2:0. Odds are dropping. Prediction: Leonardo Mayer – John Isner 3-6 6-7.

Pick: Isner 2:0
Odds: 1.94 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 5 October