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Lucas Pouille will play the match of his life so far when he meets Roger Federer in the Paris Masters 3rd round.
The Frenchman was not turning any heads prior to Paris and few expected him to pass the qualification round but not only he did it, he reached the 3rd round as well. He defeated S. Johnson and Nieminen in the qualies (straight sets), went on to demolish Karlovic 6-1 6-4 and finally defeated Fognini 7-6 7-6 in the second round. Good tennis by the 176th ranked Pouille but still it has to be said that Karlovic was totally out of shape and Fognini beat himself, like he always does. It remains to be seen if playing so many matches will be a handicap for Pouille, as he`s not used to this effort against this kind of opposition.
Bet on Lucas Pouille vs. Roger Federer with the best Paris tennis odds offered by Pinnacle.
Federer struggled big time to defeat Chardy 7-6 6-7 6-4 in his first match here and not only that, but Roger actually looked pretty bad on court with a ton of unforced errors and poor shot selection. Nevertheless, he won his 13th match in a row, backing up some top class form which allowed him to win Shanghai and Basel back to back before Paris. Federer usually starts tournaments slow, so he should increase his level today against Pouille, especially as there is big motivation for Fed to finish as the year end number 1, so he badly needs a good performance (preferably without spending too much time on the court).
I remember writing a very similar tip a few weeks ago in Shanghai after Federer almost lost to Mayer in his first match. I was saying that I have seen this many times, Roger starts shaky, than promptly increases his level and gets a big win. He did it in Shanghai with Bautista Agut (6-4 6-2) after the Mayer thriller and I expect nothing less from Roger today against Pouille after the Chardy thriller. Expect the Swiss to make use of his experience against this young opponent and cruise towards a 2 set win with at least one break per set. My tip is under 20 games to be played – surely better than the 5 game handicap, as it will bring us profit in case of a 6-4 6-3. Not much else to say, things are rather simple as far as I`m concerned. Prediction: Lucas Pouille – Roger Federer 4-6 2-6.
Pick: under 20 games
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 30 October
