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UPDATE: This preview is not valid, as it contains wrong information. The entire analysis is based on wrong information. I have settled the pick as lost. I apologize to those who trusted the analysis.
The last round of the Spain Segunda Division, Liga Adelante, will feature plenty of interesting duels and one of the most anticipated is the clash between Mallorca and Cordoba. Mallorca needs a draw to stay in Segunda Division, while Cordoba needs a win to (most likely) qualify for the promotion playoffs, but they have a chance to do it with a draw as well. Due to the circumstances, the draw is priced at just 2.25.
Considering my embarrassing form, I will try to make myself useful by focusing more on putting out comprehensive and correct information about this match and its mathematics (a lot of calculus and strategy involved in this last round).
Mallorca (46 points), Ponferradina (46 points) and Almeria (44 points) will fight to avoid the 19th place, currently held by Almeria, which sends into the third division. The tiebreaker rules in Segunda Division in case of a tie in points are represented by the Head 2 Head results. Mallorca holds H2H advantages over both Ponferradina and Almeria this season, so they are in a good position to avoid the drop. A draw would guarantee salvation and they will feel good about their chances, at home, where they have been very strong this season, losing just 3 times in 20 games and winning their last two, albeit struggling a bit to do it.
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The fight to finish in the Top 6 and qualify for the promotion playoffs could not be more tight. Teams from 4th to 9th all have a chance to qualify or miss out, while teams from 4th to 7th are tied in points. Cordoba is currently 7th, tied with the 4th place, but having the worst Head 2 Head results with the teams above. They need a win here, but must also hope one of the three sides above them drops points. Depending on the results Cordoba could also do with a draw, but that is unlikely. The visitors are in good form, winning 3 out of the last 4 matches, stepping it up in the race to finish Top 6.
Odds for a draw are 2.25 here, which might seem fair at a first sight. Fact is that Mallorca needs nothing more than a draw, while Cordoba COULD be satisfied with a draw, so that`s the logic behind it.
However, it`s very difficult for Cordoba to stay up with a draw. Because of a poor H2H record against all teams fighting for a Top 6 spot in the standings and because teams placed 5th and 6th play against teams placed 8th and 9th, Cordoba has only one option of finishing Top 6 with a draw – they need for Osasuna to lose at home against 16th placed Huesca, a team not fighting for anything. That is highly unlikely to happen.
I reckon there`s a better chance for both teams to achieve their objective if Cordoba wins, than if it ends with a draw. Almeria not winning OR Ponferradina losing will keep Mallorca up even with a loss. There`s a higher chance for one of those to happen than for Osasuna to lose, which would make Cordoba need a draw.
With the above factors in mind, it`s fair to expect Cordoba going for the win here. It will obviously be a difficult task considering Mallorca’s motivation and their form at home, but Cordoba is the better team, they are in very good form and they have a decent away record (won 3-0 last round at Mirandes). Cordoba has the strength to win this, so personally I think it’s worth trusting them at such high odds. For better safety though, I will tip Cordoba to win with a +0 asian handicap (draw no bet). Prediction: Mallorca – Cordoba 1-2.
Pick: Cordoba (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.63 @ Sbobet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 8.15
Event date: 29 May
Men. What the hell are you talking about?What is with all these calculation..this is not the last round from segunda division.please do not misslead the people who read your pics . It s hard to believe you can make such a rookie mistake
Man, I don`t know what`s wrong with me. I never made such a mistake in 10 years of tipping. I think I need a break. I`m tired.
This makes Betdistrict look like an amateur website and I am so sorry about that. I was calling out low quality websites who made mistakes that don`t even compare to this one. I always took pride in providing correct info …
I don`t recall when was the last time I bet based solely on stats. This time I did it. I just wanted to provide the best info on the game and it backfired. I read it was the last round in Romanian media and forgot to double check.
I honestly apologize to the people who read the tip. Thank you, Cris, for pointing out the error. This is inexcusable. I settled the pick as lost, it`s the least I can do.
Don`t lose faith in Betdistrict because of this error.
You should not valid this as lost.it is a bet.anything can happen and between you and me cordoba is the better side and normaly the will not lose this one..you saw the wrong information you fixed . Cheers
Put yourself in my shoes. Could you look at yourself in the mirror if you wrote this rubbish and still add profit to your record? I might as well post tips with no preview in this case. I`m all about giving out correct info, this is lost. I appreciate you being understanding towards my mistake.