Betdistrict.com
The first semifinal of the ATP Masters event in Paris Bercy brings you two rather surprising players facing eachother, none of them being expected to reach this stage at the start of the tournament. Marin Cilic, who defeated the world no. 1 in the quarterfinals in straight sets (6-4 7-6 v Djokovic) will face the big American John Isner. The bookmakers see Cilic as a big favorite after his win against Djokovic and his odds to win are 1.35 – 1.40.
You could say that both of these players started the tournament without any real chance to get in final rounds … looking tired (Cilic won last week in Basel) or being out of form (Isner lost to Edmund, Zverev, Delpo and Murray in last 6 matches played).
Isner is one of the top 2 servers in the world (and some would say in the history of tennis), along with Karlovic, and this could be seen in his results. He played 10 sets of tennis this week and played 5 Tie Breaks, of those 3 were 1st set Tie Breaks (out of 4 matches). He managed to win against Misha Zverev, Ferrer, Struff and Sock.
Cilic is also a top 10 server and the 3 matches played here (6 sets) had 3 Tie Breaks, 1 of those was in the first set. Cilic managed to win against Karlovic, Goffin and Djokovic, winning all 3 tiebreaks played so far.
The head to head shows even better what my bet will be all about. Cilic leads 7-0 and in those matches they have played 21 sets of tennis. Of those 21 sets of tennis they have played 10 Tie Breaks and a 9-7 in deciding set. From their 7 encounters they have played 4 1st set Tie Breaks and last 3 matches had 1st set Tie Break.
The main thing is that Isner`s serve was nearly to unreturnable this week, while his return game is, as always, nearly nonexistent. Cilic also has a better serve on his side than his return skills and that why I think the best bet here would be 1st set Tie Break.
I am going to bet that this semifinal will have a tiebreak in the first set.
Pick: First set tiebreak
Odds: 2.10 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 5 November
