Copil – Ramos

Marius Copil will take on Albert Ramos-Vinolas on Sunday morning, in the first match to be played on the main draw at the 2017 Roland Garros.

Marius Copil is currently going through his best moments as a tennis player, as he finally broke into the Top 100 at 26 years of age. Always a solid talent, the Romanian seems to have matured, found consistency in his game and played some good tennis so far in the European clay court season. Copil’s achievements on the red dirt in 2017 include second rounds at Munich and Madrid, a win over Garcia Lopez and a very tight loss to Bautista Agut. He also passed three qualifying rounds here at Roland Garros (Shapovalov, Ivashka and Gojowczyk).

After claiming the best performance of his career by reaching the final in Monte Carlo (defeated by Nadal), Ramos-Vinolas surprisingly lost all form and has not won a match in over a month. Normally an excellent clay court player, Ramos has been completely off his game in the last weeks, losing his last 4 matches against Murray, Schwartzman, Isner and Kuznetsov.

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Ramos Vinolas won the only H2H meeting between the two players, back in 2011 on clay, a 6-7 6-4 6-1 victory which doesn`t hold any relevance ahead of this clash.

Copil isn`t playing out of this world tennis and he already lost two sets in the qualifying tournament, but he is playing pretty well, he`s motivated and confident, and his serve is working. Copil has a very powerful first ball and that should allow them to stay in sets against Ramos, especially with the Spaniard being very shaky lately.

Ramos will probably improve compared to his recent performances and he should win this game, but you have to feel the bookies are giving him too much credit against an in form big server, who also proved multiple times that he can play close matches against top players in big tournaments.

I like the games total line here, which is set pretty low at 36,5 points. Ramos will probably need some time to find his rhythm, while Copil has already played 3 qualifying matches, so the Romanian has a real shot to win a set – especially with his big serve likely to earn him one or two tiebreaks, where chances are 50-50. The line can even be covered in 3 sets if Copil stays consistent on serve, although that is much less likely.

I like the over more than the handicap on Copil (which is set at 6 games), because I feel that once Ramos gets going, there`s a real chance he could blow out the Romanian in one of the sets. My tip is over 36,5 games. Prediction: Marius Copil – Albert Ramos 4-6 7-6 6-7 2-6.

Pick: over 36,5 games
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.51
Event date: 28 May