Copil – Kukushkin

Marius Copil will take on Mikhail Kukushkin in the first round on the hard courts at the ATP Miami Masters 1000 event. The match has been scheduled for Thursday.

Copil had the best result of his career exactly one month ago in Sofia, where he reached his first ATP final, and was close to winning it as well – but eventually fell in three sets to the in form Basic. Unfortunately for Copil he didn`t do much since Sofia, losing in the first round in Rotterdam and Indian Wells, and in the quarterfinals at the IW challenger. Last week he was defeated 6-7 7-6 6-7 by Polansky in the Indian Wells Round 1, so the Romanian will look to get back on track in Miami.

Mikhail Kukushkin had a rather modest start to the year, but he stepped on the gas last week and managed to win the strong Irving challenger, beating some very solid players along the way (Donaldson, Fratangelo, Johnson and Berrettini in the final). As such, the Kazakh will feel good and confident coming into this match with Copil.

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Kukushkin leads the H2H 2-1 (all matches on hard). Copil won the previous meeting last Autumn in Bratislava, but Kukushkin retired at 3-6 0-3. The other two matches were both extremely close affairs. A matchup analysis won`t reveal an advantage for one player or the other in terms of playing styles.

Based on his level of play last week, Kukushkin deserves to be a favorite in this clash, and definitely has the first chance to win it. However, Copil will be eager to bounce back after a couple of losses and, as always, he will rely on his big serve to get him over the finish line.

Kukushkin is no world beater and Copil should be able to keep this match close with his serve, especially if the Kazakh player will experience a little fatigue after his run last week in the Irving challenger.

This looks like it will be a close match, as it was also the case in their previous meetings, and three sets are a real possibility. When you add Copil’s massive first serve and the possibility of tiebreaks which it brings, then a bet on the over (total games line) starts to make sense.

The line is set at 22.5 games which is pretty low in my eyes, so my tip here will be over 22.5 games to be played. Prediction: Marius Copil – Mikhail Kukushkin 4-6 7-6 4-6.

Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 1.93 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.51
Event date: 21 March 22 March