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First Hungarian player to reach the last 16 in a Slam since 1984 (Taroczy in French Open) and ranked #80 will face the bookie`s favorite and #2 favorite for a place in the quarte final.
Fucsovics has tried to reach the MD of Australian Open in the past 4 years and never managed to do so, losing every time in the qualies. This is a fun fact, but won`t affect us a bit in our bet. Fucsovics is now placed on his best ranking and is playing his best tennis. He has a record of 8-2 this year, losing to Paire in R16 in Pune ATP (where he had MPs) and Sepppi in the final of Canberra Ch. (lost in the 3rd set). This week he managed to defeat Albot, Querrey and Kicker droping just 2 sets during. He played really good during this week. His only other 2 MDs of Slam matches were last year in US Open where he lost to Mahut in 5 sets, covering the handicap, and in Wimbledon where he lost to Muller (in form Muller, lost by 8 games).
Roger Federer has a 7-0 record this year and he defeated the likes of Sugita, Khachanov, Sock and Zverev in Hopman, while in #AusOpen he defeated Bedene, Struff and Gasquet. Fact is that he covered the AH line just once, when defeating Gasquet. All other matches were close and won mostly in TBs or by one breaks. He has played 18 sets and he managed to win only 6 sets by -2.5 games. Federer had some long matches last year in Australia too, struggling to cover the asian handicap line against both Melzer and Rubin.
The fact that the two have trained together last year will make me believe that Marton will know what to expect, but will also make me believe that Federer will know what to do to win. My guess is that he will win this match by 6-7 games.
As a final conclusion I will say that Marton is a good baseliner with a good serve (surface is really fast this year … which will help him holding serve). Only major concern is that Fucsovics hasn`t played any matches on a stadium this big, but this will be in balance with the Australian crowd which usually cheers for the underdog, just to see a longer match.
My bet is Fucsovics +9 games at odds of 1.82 from Pinnacle. For the braver ones the +8.5 @ 2.10 from Betway is the bet to take.
Pick: Fucsovics +9.0 games
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.56
Event date: 22 January
