Heat – 76ers

The Miami Heat will host the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday night, in Game 4 of this extremely interesting Eastern Conference first round series.

The Heat (44-38, 26-15 home in regular season) entered Game 3 a couple of days ago high on confidence after stealing one win in Philadelphia, and for three quarters it looked like they could go up 2-1 in the series. However, they were completely outplayed in the 4th quarter, lost by 20 points, and will now face a do or die clash at home. The Heat will know that a defeat today would virtually mean elimination, while a win would put them right back into contention.

The Sixers (52-30, 22-19 home) welcomed back their star man Joel Embiid in Game 3 and he had an immediate impact, helping them pull ahead with some clutch plays in the fourth quarter. Philly looked very good so far in this series, particularly due to their three point shooting. They are young, athletic, well coached, proving the hype about them is real. They will be confident of continuing on the same note in this Game 4.

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Team news: There are no new injuries or suspensions to report for either team.

At the start of the series I thought this will be tighter than most people expected, and I still think that way, as I believe Miami is a bit underrated and has a good chance to tie it at 2-2 by winning Game 4. However, the Sixers have proven they are the real deal and deserving of all the hype, something I have to admit I wasn`t quite sure about.

Philadelphia is playing some really good basketball, but what musn`t be forgotten is the fact that Miami is playing great as well. The Heat have been as good as Philly (or even better) in 9 of the 12 quarters of basketball played so far, collapsing only in the three quarters in which Philly went bananas from three point range.

While there are obviously many aspects to a basketball game and Philly is up 2-1 because of a mix of factors, the main difference has really been Philly`s three point shooting, which was at amazing percentages in Game 1 (65%) and Game 3 (53%). That allowed them to break open tight games late, and run away with their two wins. While Philly is a great three point shooting team and is always expected to shoot decent from deep, these percentages are just too high against a good defensive team like Miami – and unlikely to be repeated in consecutive games. Chances are Philly will shoot worse in this Game 4 (like they did in Game 2, which they lost).

I bet twice on Miami in this series, ironically exactly in the games they lost. Nevertheless, I will back the Heat again, as my analysis on the game suggests value is on their side.

This should be a close game, and Miami has a good shot to edge it due to home court advantage, as long as they defend the three point line better (something they have surely worked on), and as long as Philly doesn`t have another crazy night of making tough shots (something which shouldn`t happen).

My tip is the Heat to cover the +3 point (asian) handicap. Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers – Miami Heat 112 – 116.

Pick: Heat +3
Odds: 1.98 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 21 April